The potential predictive value of tumor budding for neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy response in locally advanced rectal cancer

PURPOSE: This study was conducted to investigate the potential predictive value of tumor budding for neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy response in locally advanced rectal cancer. PATIENTS AND METHODS: Surgical specimens of 128 ypUICC (Union for International Cancer Control) stage 0–III mid-to-low rectal cancer patients were identified from a prospectively maintained colorectal cancer database and classified into two groups using the 10 high-power field average method: none/mild tumor budding (BD-0) and moderate/severe tumor budding (BD-1). Overall survival, relapse-free survival (RFS), and recurrence estimates were calculated using the Kaplan–Meier method and compared with the log-rank test. For RFS, a multivariable Cox’s proportional hazards regression analysis was performed. RESULTS: No (n = 20) or mild (n = 27) tumor budding (BD-0) was identified in 47 (37%) and moderate (n = 52) or severe (n = 29) tumor budding (BD-1) in 81 (63%) surgical specimens. Positive tumor budding (BD-1) was associated with significantly reduced T‑level downstaging (P < 0.001) and tumor regression (P < 0.001). After a median follow-up time of 7 years (range 2.9–146.7 months), BD-0 patients had more favorable 5‑year RFS (90 vs. 71%, P = 0.02) and distant recurrence (2 vs. 12%, P = 0.03) estimates. Multivariable analyses confirmed BD-1 as a negative predictive parameter for RFS (hazard ratio = 3.44, 95% confidence interval 1.23–9.63, P = 0.018). CONCLUSIONS: Our data confirm tumor budding as a strong prognostic factor and its potential predictive value for neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy response in locally advanced rectal cancer patients. This provides the opportunity to modify and individualize neoadjuvant therapy regimens for non-responders.