10-Year Renal Function Trajectories in Community-Dwelling Older Adults: Exploring the Risk Factors for Different Patterns

Longitudinal changes of renal function help inform patients’ clinical courses and improve risk stratification. Rare studies address risk factors predicting changes in estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) over time in older adults, particularly of Chinese ethnicity. We identified prospectively enrolled community-dwelling older adults (≥65 years) receiving annual health examinations between 2005 and 2015 with serum creatinine available continuously in a single institute, and used linear regression to derive individual’s annual eGFR changes, followed by multivariate logistic regression analyses to identify features associated with different eGFR change patterns. Among 500 elderly (71.3 ± 4.2 years), their mean annual eGFR changes were 0.84 ± 1.67 mL/min/1.73 m(2)/year, with 136 (27.2%) and 238 (47.6%) classified as having downward (annual eGFR change <0 mL/min/1.73 m(2)/year) and upward eGFR (≥1 mL/min/1.73 m(2)/year) trajectories, respectively. Multivariate logistic regression showed that higher age (odds ratio (OR) 1.08), worse renal function (OR 13.2), and more severe proteinuria (OR 9.86) or hematuria (OR 3.39) were predictive of a declining eGFR while greater waist circumference (OR 1.06) and higher leukocyte counts (OR 1.21) were predictive of an uprising 10-year eGFR. These findings elucidate important features associated with geriatric renal function variations, which are expected to improve their renal care.