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The Epidemiological Influence of Climatic Factors on Shigellosis Incidence Rates in Korea

Research has shown the effects of climatic factors on shigellosis; however, no previous study has evaluated climatic effects in regions with a winter seasonality of shigellosis incidence. We examined the effects of temperature and precipitation on shigellosis incidence in Korea from 2002–2010. The i...

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Autores principales: Song, Yeong-Jun, Cheong, Hae-Kwan, Ki, Myung, Shin, Ji-Yeon, Hwang, Seung-sik, Park, Mira, Ki, Moran, Lim, Jiseun
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: MDPI 2018
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6210993/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/30309010
http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/ijerph15102209
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author Song, Yeong-Jun
Cheong, Hae-Kwan
Ki, Myung
Shin, Ji-Yeon
Hwang, Seung-sik
Park, Mira
Ki, Moran
Lim, Jiseun
author_facet Song, Yeong-Jun
Cheong, Hae-Kwan
Ki, Myung
Shin, Ji-Yeon
Hwang, Seung-sik
Park, Mira
Ki, Moran
Lim, Jiseun
author_sort Song, Yeong-Jun
collection PubMed
description Research has shown the effects of climatic factors on shigellosis; however, no previous study has evaluated climatic effects in regions with a winter seasonality of shigellosis incidence. We examined the effects of temperature and precipitation on shigellosis incidence in Korea from 2002–2010. The incidence of shigellosis was calculated based on data from the Korean Center for Disease Control and Prevention (KCDC, Cheongju, Korea), and a generalized additive model (GAM) was used to analyze the associations between the incidence and climatic factors. The annual incidence rate of shigellosis was 7.9 cases/million persons from 2002–2010. During 2007–2010, high incidence rates and winter seasonality were observed among those aged ≥65 years, but not among lower age groups. Based on the GAM model, the incidence of shigellosis is expected to increase by 13.6% and 2.9% with a temperature increase of 1 °C and a lag of two weeks and with a mean precipitation increase of 1 mm and a lag of five weeks after adjustment for seasonality, respectively. This study suggests that the incidence of shigellosis will increase with global climate change despite the winter seasonality of shigellosis in Korea. Public health action is needed to prevent the increase of shigellosis incidence associated with climate variations.
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spelling pubmed-62109932018-11-02 The Epidemiological Influence of Climatic Factors on Shigellosis Incidence Rates in Korea Song, Yeong-Jun Cheong, Hae-Kwan Ki, Myung Shin, Ji-Yeon Hwang, Seung-sik Park, Mira Ki, Moran Lim, Jiseun Int J Environ Res Public Health Article Research has shown the effects of climatic factors on shigellosis; however, no previous study has evaluated climatic effects in regions with a winter seasonality of shigellosis incidence. We examined the effects of temperature and precipitation on shigellosis incidence in Korea from 2002–2010. The incidence of shigellosis was calculated based on data from the Korean Center for Disease Control and Prevention (KCDC, Cheongju, Korea), and a generalized additive model (GAM) was used to analyze the associations between the incidence and climatic factors. The annual incidence rate of shigellosis was 7.9 cases/million persons from 2002–2010. During 2007–2010, high incidence rates and winter seasonality were observed among those aged ≥65 years, but not among lower age groups. Based on the GAM model, the incidence of shigellosis is expected to increase by 13.6% and 2.9% with a temperature increase of 1 °C and a lag of two weeks and with a mean precipitation increase of 1 mm and a lag of five weeks after adjustment for seasonality, respectively. This study suggests that the incidence of shigellosis will increase with global climate change despite the winter seasonality of shigellosis in Korea. Public health action is needed to prevent the increase of shigellosis incidence associated with climate variations. MDPI 2018-10-10 2018-10 /pmc/articles/PMC6210993/ /pubmed/30309010 http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/ijerph15102209 Text en © 2018 by the authors. Licensee MDPI, Basel, Switzerland. This article is an open access article distributed under the terms and conditions of the Creative Commons Attribution (CC BY) license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/).
spellingShingle Article
Song, Yeong-Jun
Cheong, Hae-Kwan
Ki, Myung
Shin, Ji-Yeon
Hwang, Seung-sik
Park, Mira
Ki, Moran
Lim, Jiseun
The Epidemiological Influence of Climatic Factors on Shigellosis Incidence Rates in Korea
title The Epidemiological Influence of Climatic Factors on Shigellosis Incidence Rates in Korea
title_full The Epidemiological Influence of Climatic Factors on Shigellosis Incidence Rates in Korea
title_fullStr The Epidemiological Influence of Climatic Factors on Shigellosis Incidence Rates in Korea
title_full_unstemmed The Epidemiological Influence of Climatic Factors on Shigellosis Incidence Rates in Korea
title_short The Epidemiological Influence of Climatic Factors on Shigellosis Incidence Rates in Korea
title_sort epidemiological influence of climatic factors on shigellosis incidence rates in korea
topic Article
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6210993/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/30309010
http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/ijerph15102209
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