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Evolution of threats in the global risk network

With a steadily growing population and rapid advancements in technology, the global economy is increasing in size and complexity. This growth exacerbates global vulnerabilities and may lead to unforeseen consequences such as global pandemics fueled by air travel, cyberspace attacks, and cascading fa...

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Autores principales: Niu, Xiang, Moussawi, Alaa, Korniss, Gyorgy, Szymanski, Boleslaw K.
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: Springer International Publishing 2018
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6214318/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/30839829
http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s41109-018-0077-0
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author Niu, Xiang
Moussawi, Alaa
Korniss, Gyorgy
Szymanski, Boleslaw K.
author_facet Niu, Xiang
Moussawi, Alaa
Korniss, Gyorgy
Szymanski, Boleslaw K.
author_sort Niu, Xiang
collection PubMed
description With a steadily growing population and rapid advancements in technology, the global economy is increasing in size and complexity. This growth exacerbates global vulnerabilities and may lead to unforeseen consequences such as global pandemics fueled by air travel, cyberspace attacks, and cascading failures caused by the weakest link in a supply chain. Hence, a quantitative understanding of the mechanisms driving global network vulnerabilities is urgently needed. Developing methods for efficiently monitoring evolution of the global economy is essential to such understanding. Each year the World Economic Forum publishes an authoritative report on the state of the global economy and identifies risks that are likely to be active, impactful or contagious. Using a Cascading Alternating Renewal Process approach to model the dynamics of the global risk network, we are able to answer critical questions regarding the evolution of this network. To fully trace the evolution of the network we analyze the asymptotic state of risks (risk levels which would be reached in the long term if the risks were left unabated) given a snapshot in time; this elucidates the various challenges faced by the world community at each point in time. We also investigate the influence exerted by each risk on others. Results presented here are obtained through either quantitative analysis or computational simulations.
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spelling pubmed-62143182018-11-13 Evolution of threats in the global risk network Niu, Xiang Moussawi, Alaa Korniss, Gyorgy Szymanski, Boleslaw K. Appl Netw Sci Research With a steadily growing population and rapid advancements in technology, the global economy is increasing in size and complexity. This growth exacerbates global vulnerabilities and may lead to unforeseen consequences such as global pandemics fueled by air travel, cyberspace attacks, and cascading failures caused by the weakest link in a supply chain. Hence, a quantitative understanding of the mechanisms driving global network vulnerabilities is urgently needed. Developing methods for efficiently monitoring evolution of the global economy is essential to such understanding. Each year the World Economic Forum publishes an authoritative report on the state of the global economy and identifies risks that are likely to be active, impactful or contagious. Using a Cascading Alternating Renewal Process approach to model the dynamics of the global risk network, we are able to answer critical questions regarding the evolution of this network. To fully trace the evolution of the network we analyze the asymptotic state of risks (risk levels which would be reached in the long term if the risks were left unabated) given a snapshot in time; this elucidates the various challenges faced by the world community at each point in time. We also investigate the influence exerted by each risk on others. Results presented here are obtained through either quantitative analysis or computational simulations. Springer International Publishing 2018-08-10 2018 /pmc/articles/PMC6214318/ /pubmed/30839829 http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s41109-018-0077-0 Text en © The Author(s) 2018 Open Access This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License(http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/), which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons license, and indicate if changes were made.
spellingShingle Research
Niu, Xiang
Moussawi, Alaa
Korniss, Gyorgy
Szymanski, Boleslaw K.
Evolution of threats in the global risk network
title Evolution of threats in the global risk network
title_full Evolution of threats in the global risk network
title_fullStr Evolution of threats in the global risk network
title_full_unstemmed Evolution of threats in the global risk network
title_short Evolution of threats in the global risk network
title_sort evolution of threats in the global risk network
topic Research
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6214318/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/30839829
http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s41109-018-0077-0
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