Topology, robustness, and structural controllability of the Brazilian Federal Police criminal intelligence network

Law enforcement and intelligence agencies worldwide struggle to find effective ways to fight organized crime and reduce criminality. However, illegal networks operate outside the law and much of the data collected is classified. Therefore, little is known about the structure, topological weaknesses, and control of criminal networks. We fill this gap by presenting a unique criminal intelligence network built directly by the Brazilian Federal Police for intelligence and investigative purposes. We study its structure, its response to different attack strategies, and its structural controllability. Surprisingly, the network composed of individuals involved in multiple crimes of federal jurisdiction in Brazil has a giant component enclosing more than half of all its edges. We focus on the largest connected cluster of this network and show it has many social network features, such as small-worldness and heavy-tail degree distribution. However, it is less dense and less efficient than typical social networks. The giant component also shows a high degree cutoff that is associated with the lack of trust among individuals belonging to clandestine networks. The giant component of the network is also highly modular (Q=0.96) and thence fragile to module-based attacks. The targets in such attacks, i.e. the nodes connecting distinct communities, may be interpreted as individuals with bridging clandestine activities such as accountants, lawyers, or money changers. The network can be disrupted by the removal of approximately 2% of either its nodes or edges, the negligible difference between both approaches being due to low graph density. Finally, we show that 20% of driver nodes can control dynamic variables acting on the whole network, suggesting that non-repressive strategies such as access to basic education or sanitation can be effective in reducing criminality by changing the perception of driver individuals to norm compliance. ELECTRONIC SUPPLEMENTARY MATERIAL: The online version of this article (10.1007/s41109-018-0092-1) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.