The impact of tobacco tax/law implementation on pancreatic cancer mortality in Mexico, 1999–2015

Among the multiple aetiologies identified for pancreatic cancer (PC), cigarette smoking and diabetes are considered “moderate risk factors”. Analysis of PC mortality trends is important as changes in incidence and mortality of this tumour can be partially attributable to changes in smoking patterns. A recent Mexican study examined PC mortality trends and showed a favourable trend from 2000 to 2014 [1]. However, the impact of new tobacco tax/laws which were implemented in Mexico in 2007/2008 was not assessed in this study. In this re-analysis we assessed their impact on PC mortality and found a non-statistically significant trend from 1999 to 2008 - however, PC mortality statistically decreased from 2008 with an annual percent change or APC of −1.27, −1.23 and −1.17 in both sexes, females and males respectively, p < 0.05. These declines are likely resulting in part from new tobacco tax/laws which are likely contributing to the decrease over time of smoking prevalence and environmental tobacco smoke exposure.