The increasing variability of tropical cyclone lifetime maximum intensity

This study investigates long-term changes in the variability of TC intensity of global tropical cyclones, a topic which has been relatively infrequently studied to date. Our study finds that the variability of global TC lifetime maximum intensity (LMI), as measured by the LMI standard deviation, increases during 1981–2016. The increasing trend in LMI variability is statistically significant for both the Northern and Southern Hemispheres, with three individual TC basins: the western North Pacific, the South Indian and the South Pacific also having statistically significant increases. This increasing trend primarily results from distinct changes in the relative percentages of TCs with different intensities. When comparing two periods: 1981–1998 and 1999–2016, the proportions of weak and strong TCs increase, whereas moderate TCs occur relatively less frequently. This bimodal pattern of observed LMI distribution change is further linked to opposite trends in the average intensities of TCs that undergo rapid intensification (RI) during their lifetime (RI TCs) and those that do not (non-RI TCs). The LMI distributions of RI and non-RI TCs migrate to higher and lower intensities, respectively. Our results demonstrate from an observational perspective that strong TCs have strengthened while weak TCs have weakened as the global climate has warmed since 1981.