A prediction model for good neurological outcome in successfully resuscitated out-of-hospital cardiac arrest patients

BACKGROUND: In the initial hours after out-of-hospital cardiac arrest (OHCA), it remains difficult to estimate whether the degree of post-ischemic brain damage will be compatible with long-term good neurological outcome. We aimed to construct prognostic models able to predict good neurological outcome of OHCA patients within 48 h after CCU admission using variables that are bedside available. METHODS: Based on prospectively gathered data, a retrospective data analysis was performed on 107 successfully resuscitated OHCA patients with a presumed cardiac cause of arrest. Targeted temperature management at 33 °C was initiated at CCU admission. Prediction models for good neurological outcome (CPC1–2) at 180 days post-CA were constructed at hour 1, 12, 24 and 48 after CCU admission. Following multiple imputation, variables were selected using the elastic-net method. Each imputed dataset was divided into training and validation sets (80% and 20% of patients, respectively). Logistic regression was fitted on training sets and prediction performance was evaluated on validation sets using misclassification rates. RESULTS: The prediction model at hour 24 predicted good neurological outcome with the lowest misclassification rate (21.5%), using a cut-off probability of 0.55 (sensitivity = 75%; specificity = 82%). This model contained sex, age, diabetes status, initial rhythm, percutaneous coronary intervention, presence of a BIS 0 value, mean BIS value and lactate as predictive variables for good neurological outcome. DISCUSSION: This study shows that good neurological outcome after OHCA can be reasonably predicted as early as 24 h following ICU admission using parameters that are bedside available. These prediction models could identify patients who would benefit the most from intensive care.