Development and validation of warning system of ventricular tachyarrhythmia in patients with heart failure with heart rate variability data

Implantable-cardioverter defibrillators (ICD) detect and terminate life-threatening ventricular tachyarrhythmia with electric shocks after they occur. This puts patients at risk if they are driving or in a situation where they can fall. ICD’s shocks are also very painful and affect a patient’s quality of life. It would be ideal if ICDs can accurately predict the occurrence of ventricular tachyarrhythmia and then issue a warning or provide preventive therapy. Our study explores the use of ICD data to automatically predict ventricular arrhythmia using heart rate variability (HRV). A 5 minute and a 10 second warning system are both developed and compared. The participants for this study consist of 788 patients who were enrolled in the ICD arm of the Sudden Cardiac Death–Heart Failure Trial (SCD-HeFT). Two groups of patient rhythms, regular heart rhythms and pre-ventricular-tachyarrhythmic rhythms, are analyzed and different HRV features are extracted. Machine learning algorithms, including random forests (RF) and support vector machines (SVM), are trained on these features to classify the two groups of rhythms in a subset of the data comprising the training set. These algorithms are then used to classify rhythms in a separate test set. This performance is quantified by the area under the curve (AUC) of the ROC curve. Both RF and SVM methods achieve a mean AUC of 0.81 for 5-minute prediction and mean AUC of 0.87–0.88 for 10-second prediction; an AUC over 0.8 typically warrants further clinical investigation. Our work shows that moderate classification accuracy can be achieved to predict ventricular tachyarrhythmia with machine learning algorithms using HRV features from ICD data. These results provide a realistic view of the practical challenges facing implementation of machine learning algorithms to predict ventricular tachyarrhythmia using HRV data, motivating continued research on improved algorithms and additional features with higher predictive power.