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Reducing Wallacean shortfalls for the coralsnakes of the Micrurus lemniscatus species complex: Present and future distributions under a changing climate
South American coralsnakes are characterized by inconspicuous and poorly known species, which are potentially very sensitive to climate change. Here, we assess the impact of future climate change on the distributions of the Micrurus lemniscatus species complex after addressing the Wallacean shortfal...
Autores principales: | , , , , , , |
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Formato: | Online Artículo Texto |
Lenguaje: | English |
Publicado: |
Public Library of Science
2018
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Materias: | |
Acceso en línea: | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6241113/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/30427853 http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0205164 |
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author | Terribile, Levi Carina Feitosa, Darlan Tavares Pires, Matheus Godoy de Almeida, Paula Carolina Rodrigues de Oliveira, Guilherme Diniz-Filho, José Alexandre Felizola da Silva, Nelson Jorge |
author_facet | Terribile, Levi Carina Feitosa, Darlan Tavares Pires, Matheus Godoy de Almeida, Paula Carolina Rodrigues de Oliveira, Guilherme Diniz-Filho, José Alexandre Felizola da Silva, Nelson Jorge |
author_sort | Terribile, Levi Carina |
collection | PubMed |
description | South American coralsnakes are characterized by inconspicuous and poorly known species, which are potentially very sensitive to climate change. Here, we assess the impact of future climate change on the distributions of the Micrurus lemniscatus species complex after addressing the Wallacean shortfalls and refining the knowledge about their current geographic distributions. We also evaluate the efficiency of the current reserve network to protect the species in the present and future. We applied ecological niche model tools through a carefully examined set of occurrence records to generate potential present distributions and to project these distributions into future scenarios of climate change. Specific thresholds based on occurrence records along with expert opinions were used to delineate the geographic distribution of each species. A hierarchical ANOVA was applied to evaluate the uncertainties in species distributions across niche modeling methods and climate models and nested into the time factor (present and future). Multiple regression models were used to infer the relative importance of the climatic variables to determine the species’ suitability. A gap analysis was performed to address the representativeness of species distributions into protected areas. Predicted geographic distributions were compatible with the known distributions and the expert opinions, except for M. l. carvalhoi. New areas for field research were identified. Variation in precipitation was the most important factor defining the habitat suitability for all species, except for M. diutius. All taxa (except M. l. lemniscatus) will shrink their distributions in the future; less than 50% of the present suitable areas are protected in reserve networks, and less than 40% of these areas will be held in reserves in the future. We found strong evidence that coralsnakes may be highly sensitive to the ongoing changes and must be protected. |
format | Online Article Text |
id | pubmed-6241113 |
institution | National Center for Biotechnology Information |
language | English |
publishDate | 2018 |
publisher | Public Library of Science |
record_format | MEDLINE/PubMed |
spelling | pubmed-62411132018-12-01 Reducing Wallacean shortfalls for the coralsnakes of the Micrurus lemniscatus species complex: Present and future distributions under a changing climate Terribile, Levi Carina Feitosa, Darlan Tavares Pires, Matheus Godoy de Almeida, Paula Carolina Rodrigues de Oliveira, Guilherme Diniz-Filho, José Alexandre Felizola da Silva, Nelson Jorge PLoS One Research Article South American coralsnakes are characterized by inconspicuous and poorly known species, which are potentially very sensitive to climate change. Here, we assess the impact of future climate change on the distributions of the Micrurus lemniscatus species complex after addressing the Wallacean shortfalls and refining the knowledge about their current geographic distributions. We also evaluate the efficiency of the current reserve network to protect the species in the present and future. We applied ecological niche model tools through a carefully examined set of occurrence records to generate potential present distributions and to project these distributions into future scenarios of climate change. Specific thresholds based on occurrence records along with expert opinions were used to delineate the geographic distribution of each species. A hierarchical ANOVA was applied to evaluate the uncertainties in species distributions across niche modeling methods and climate models and nested into the time factor (present and future). Multiple regression models were used to infer the relative importance of the climatic variables to determine the species’ suitability. A gap analysis was performed to address the representativeness of species distributions into protected areas. Predicted geographic distributions were compatible with the known distributions and the expert opinions, except for M. l. carvalhoi. New areas for field research were identified. Variation in precipitation was the most important factor defining the habitat suitability for all species, except for M. diutius. All taxa (except M. l. lemniscatus) will shrink their distributions in the future; less than 50% of the present suitable areas are protected in reserve networks, and less than 40% of these areas will be held in reserves in the future. We found strong evidence that coralsnakes may be highly sensitive to the ongoing changes and must be protected. Public Library of Science 2018-11-14 /pmc/articles/PMC6241113/ /pubmed/30427853 http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0205164 Text en © 2018 Terribile et al http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/) , which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited. |
spellingShingle | Research Article Terribile, Levi Carina Feitosa, Darlan Tavares Pires, Matheus Godoy de Almeida, Paula Carolina Rodrigues de Oliveira, Guilherme Diniz-Filho, José Alexandre Felizola da Silva, Nelson Jorge Reducing Wallacean shortfalls for the coralsnakes of the Micrurus lemniscatus species complex: Present and future distributions under a changing climate |
title | Reducing Wallacean shortfalls for the coralsnakes of the Micrurus lemniscatus species complex: Present and future distributions under a changing climate |
title_full | Reducing Wallacean shortfalls for the coralsnakes of the Micrurus lemniscatus species complex: Present and future distributions under a changing climate |
title_fullStr | Reducing Wallacean shortfalls for the coralsnakes of the Micrurus lemniscatus species complex: Present and future distributions under a changing climate |
title_full_unstemmed | Reducing Wallacean shortfalls for the coralsnakes of the Micrurus lemniscatus species complex: Present and future distributions under a changing climate |
title_short | Reducing Wallacean shortfalls for the coralsnakes of the Micrurus lemniscatus species complex: Present and future distributions under a changing climate |
title_sort | reducing wallacean shortfalls for the coralsnakes of the micrurus lemniscatus species complex: present and future distributions under a changing climate |
topic | Research Article |
url | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6241113/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/30427853 http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0205164 |
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