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Why Can't We Accurately Predict Others' Decisions? Prediction Discrepancy in Risky Decision-Making
Individuals often fail to accurately predict others' decisions in a risky environment. In this paper, we investigate the characteristics and causes of this prediction discrepancy. Participants completed a risky decision-making task mixed with different domains (gain vs. loss) and probabilities...
Autores principales: | , , , |
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Formato: | Online Artículo Texto |
Lenguaje: | English |
Publicado: |
Frontiers Media S.A.
2018
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Materias: | |
Acceso en línea: | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6242966/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/30483196 http://dx.doi.org/10.3389/fpsyg.2018.02190 |
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author | Sun, Qingzhou Zhang, Huanren Zhang, Jing Zhang, Xiaoning |
author_facet | Sun, Qingzhou Zhang, Huanren Zhang, Jing Zhang, Xiaoning |
author_sort | Sun, Qingzhou |
collection | PubMed |
description | Individuals often fail to accurately predict others' decisions in a risky environment. In this paper, we investigate the characteristics and causes of this prediction discrepancy. Participants completed a risky decision-making task mixed with different domains (gain vs. loss) and probabilities (small vs. large), with some participants making decisions for themselves (the actor) and the others predicting the actors' decisions (the predictor). The results demonstrated a prediction discrepancy: predictions were more risk-averse than the actual decisions over small-probability gains and more risk-seeking over large-probability gains, while these patterns were reversed in the loss domain. Reported and predicted levels of emotional stimulation revealed a pattern that is consistent with the notion of risk-as-feelings and empathy gaps. Mediation analysis provided strong evidence that such prediction discrepancy is driven mainly by the predictor's underestimate of the intensity (not the impact) of the actor's emotional state. |
format | Online Article Text |
id | pubmed-6242966 |
institution | National Center for Biotechnology Information |
language | English |
publishDate | 2018 |
publisher | Frontiers Media S.A. |
record_format | MEDLINE/PubMed |
spelling | pubmed-62429662018-11-27 Why Can't We Accurately Predict Others' Decisions? Prediction Discrepancy in Risky Decision-Making Sun, Qingzhou Zhang, Huanren Zhang, Jing Zhang, Xiaoning Front Psychol Psychology Individuals often fail to accurately predict others' decisions in a risky environment. In this paper, we investigate the characteristics and causes of this prediction discrepancy. Participants completed a risky decision-making task mixed with different domains (gain vs. loss) and probabilities (small vs. large), with some participants making decisions for themselves (the actor) and the others predicting the actors' decisions (the predictor). The results demonstrated a prediction discrepancy: predictions were more risk-averse than the actual decisions over small-probability gains and more risk-seeking over large-probability gains, while these patterns were reversed in the loss domain. Reported and predicted levels of emotional stimulation revealed a pattern that is consistent with the notion of risk-as-feelings and empathy gaps. Mediation analysis provided strong evidence that such prediction discrepancy is driven mainly by the predictor's underestimate of the intensity (not the impact) of the actor's emotional state. Frontiers Media S.A. 2018-11-13 /pmc/articles/PMC6242966/ /pubmed/30483196 http://dx.doi.org/10.3389/fpsyg.2018.02190 Text en Copyright © 2018 Sun, Zhang, Zhang and Zhang. http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (CC BY). The use, distribution or reproduction in other forums is permitted, provided the original author(s) and the copyright owner(s) are credited and that the original publication in this journal is cited, in accordance with accepted academic practice. No use, distribution or reproduction is permitted which does not comply with these terms. |
spellingShingle | Psychology Sun, Qingzhou Zhang, Huanren Zhang, Jing Zhang, Xiaoning Why Can't We Accurately Predict Others' Decisions? Prediction Discrepancy in Risky Decision-Making |
title | Why Can't We Accurately Predict Others' Decisions? Prediction Discrepancy in Risky Decision-Making |
title_full | Why Can't We Accurately Predict Others' Decisions? Prediction Discrepancy in Risky Decision-Making |
title_fullStr | Why Can't We Accurately Predict Others' Decisions? Prediction Discrepancy in Risky Decision-Making |
title_full_unstemmed | Why Can't We Accurately Predict Others' Decisions? Prediction Discrepancy in Risky Decision-Making |
title_short | Why Can't We Accurately Predict Others' Decisions? Prediction Discrepancy in Risky Decision-Making |
title_sort | why can't we accurately predict others' decisions? prediction discrepancy in risky decision-making |
topic | Psychology |
url | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6242966/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/30483196 http://dx.doi.org/10.3389/fpsyg.2018.02190 |
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