GLOBAL, REGIONAL, AND COUNTRY-SPECIFIC LIFETIME RISK OF STROKE, 1990–2016

BACKGROUND: Lifetime stroke risk has been calculated in a limited number of selected populations. We determined lifetime risk of stroke globally and at the regional and country level. METHODS: Using Global Burden of Disease Study estimates of stroke incidence and the competing risks of non-stroke mo...

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Detalles Bibliográficos
Autores principales: Feigin, Valery L., Nguyen, Grant, Cercy, Kelly, Johnson, Catherine O., Alam, Tahiya, Parmar, Priyakumari Ganesh, Abajobir, Amanuel Alemu, Abate, Kalkidan Hassen, Abd-Allah, Foad, Abejie, Ayenew Negesse, Abyu, Gebre Yitayih, Ademi, Zanfina, Agarwal, Gina, Ahmed, Muktar Beshir, Akinyemi, Rufus Olusola, Al-Raddadi, Rajaa, Aminde, Leopold N., Amlie-Lefond, Catherine, Ansari, Hossein, Asayesh, Hamid, Asgedom, Solomon Weldegebreal, Atey, Tesfay Mehari, Ayele, Henok Tadesse, Banach, Maciej, Banerjee, Amitava, Barac, Aleksandra, Barker-Collo, Suzanne L., Bärnighausen, Till, Barregard, Lars, Basu, Sanjay, Bedi, Neeraj, Behzadifar, Masoud, Béjot, Yannick, Bennett, Derrick A., Bensenor, Isabela M., Berhe, Derbew Fikadu, Boneya, Dube Jara, Brainin, Michael, Campos-Nonato, Ismael Ricardo, Caso, Valeria, Castañeda-Orjuela, Carlos A., Rivas, Jacquelin Castillo, Catalá-López, Ferrán, Christensen, Hanne, Criqui, Michael H., Damasceno, Albertino, Dandona, Lalit, Dandona, Rakhi, Davletov, Kairat, de Courten, Barbora, deVeber, Gabrielle, Dokova, Klara, Edessa, Dumessa, Endres, Matthias, Faraon, Emerito Jose Aquino, Farvid, Maryam S., Fischer, Florian, Foreman, Kyle, Forouzanfar, Mohammad H., Gall, Seana L., Gebrehiwot, Tsegaye Tewelde, Gillum, Richard F., Giroud, Maurice, Goulart, Alessandra C., Gupta, Rahul, Gupta, Rajeev, Hachinski, Vladimir, Hamadeh, Randah Ribhi, Hankey, Graeme J, Hareri, Habtamu Abera, Havmoeller, Rasmus, Hay, Simon I, Hegazy, Mohamed I, Hibstu, Desalegn Tsegaw, James, Spencer Lewis, Jeemon, Panniyammakal, John, Denny, Jonas, Jost B., Jóźwiak, Jacek, Kalani, Rizwan, Kandel, Amit, Kasaeian, Amir, Kengne, Andre P., Khader, Yousef Saleh, Khan, Abdur Rahman, Khang, Young-Ho, Khubchandani, Jagdish, Kim, Daniel, Kim, Yun Jin, Kivimaki, Mika, Kokubo, Yoshihiro, Kolte, Dhaval, Kopec, Jacek A., Kosen, Soewarta, Krishnamurthi, Rita, Kumar, G Anil, Lafranconi, Alessandra, Lavados, Pablo M., Legesse, Yirga, Li, Yongmei, Liang, Xiaofeng, Lo, Warren D., Lorkowski, Stefan, Lotufo, Paulo A., Loy, Clement T., Mackay, Mark T., Mahdavi, Mahdi, Majeed, Azeem, Malekzadeh, Reza, Carvalho Malta, Deborah, Mamun, Abdullah A., Mantovani, Lorenzo G., Ouriques Martins, Sheila Cristina, Mate, Kedar K., Mazidi, Mohsen, Mehata, Suresh, Meier, Toni, Melaku, Yohannes Adama, Mendoza, Walter, Mensah, George A., Meretoja, Atte, Mezgebe, Haftay Berhane, Miazgowski, Tomasz, Miller, Ted R., Ibrahim, Norlinah Mohamed, Mohammed, Shafiu, Mokdad, Ali H., Moosazadeh, Mahmood, Moran, Andrew E., Musa, Kamarul Imran, Negoi, Ruxandra Irina, Nguyen, Minh, Nguyen, Quyen Le, Nguyen, Trang Huyen, Nguyen, Tung Thanh, Nguyen, Thanh Trung, Ningrum, Dina Nur Anggraini, Norrving, Bo, Noubiap, Jean Jacques N., O’Donnell, Martin J., Olagunju, Andrew Toyin, Onuma, Oyere K., Owolabi, Mayowa O., Parasaeian, Mahboubeh, Patton, George C., Piradov, Michael, Pletcher, Martin A., Pourmalek, Farshad, Prakash, V, Qorbani, Mostafa, Rahman, Mahfuzar, Rahman, Muhammad Aziz, Rai, Rajesh Kumar, Ranta, Annemarei, Rawaf, David, Rawaf, Salman, Renzaho, Andre M. N., Robinson, Stephen R., Sahathevan, Ramesh, Sahebkar, Amirhossein, Salomon, Joshua A., Santalucia, Paola, Santos, Itamar S., Sartorius, Benn, Schutte, Aletta E., Sepanlou, Sadaf G., Shafieesabet, Azadeh, Shaikh, Masood Ali, Shamsizadeh, Morteza, Sheth, Kevin N., Shiferaw, Mekonnen Sisay, Shin, Min-Jeong, Shiue, Ivy, Santos Silva, Diego Augusto, Sobngwi, Eugene, Soljak, Michael, Sorensen, Reed J. D., Sposato, Luciano A., Stranges, Saverio, Suliankatchi, Rizwan Abdulkader, Tabarés-Seisdedos, Rafael, Tanne, David, Nguyen, Cuong Tat, Thakur, JS, Thrift, Amanda G., Tirschwell, David L., Topor-Madry, Roman, Tran, Bach Xuan, Tran, Luong Thanh, Truelsen, Thomas, Tsilimparis, Nikolaos, Tyrovolas, Stefanos, Ukwaja, Kingsley N., Uthman, Olalekan A., Vasankari, Tommi, Venketasubramanian, Narayanaswamy, Vlassov, Vasiliy Victorovich, Wang, Wenzhi, Werdecker, Andrea, Wolfe, Charles D.A., Xu, Gelin, Yano, Yuichiro, Yonemoto, Naohiro, Yu, Chuanhua, Zaidi, Zoubida, El Sayed Zaki, Maysaa, Zhou, Maigeng, Ziaeian, Boback, Zipkin, Ben, Vos, Theo, Kravchenko, Michael, Naghavi, Mohsen, Varakin, Yuri, Murray, Chirstopher J. L., Roth, Gregory A.
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: Massachusetts Medical Society 2018
Materias:
Research Article
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6247346/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/30575491
http://dx.doi.org/10.1056/NEJMoa1804492
Descripción
Sumario:BACKGROUND: Lifetime stroke risk has been calculated in a limited number of selected populations. We determined lifetime risk of stroke globally and at the regional and country level. METHODS: Using Global Burden of Disease Study estimates of stroke incidence and the competing risks of non-stroke mortality, we estimated the cumulative lifetime risk of ischemic stroke, hemorrhagic stroke, and total stroke (with 95% uncertainty intervals [UI]) for 195 countries among adults over 25 years) for the years 1990 and 2016 and according to the GBD Study Socio-Demographic Index (SDI). RESULTS: The global estimated lifetime risk of stroke from age 25 onward was 24.9% (95% UI: 23.5–26.2): 24.7% (23.3–26.0) in men and 25.1% (23.7–26.5) in women. The lifetime risk of ischemic stroke was 18.3% and of hemorrhagic stroke was 8.2%. The risk of stroke was 23.5% in high SDI countries, 31.1% in high-middle SDI countries, and 13.2% in low SDI countries with UIs not overlapping for these categories. The greatest estimated risk of stroke was in East Asia (38.8%) and Central and Eastern Europe (31.7 and 31.6 %%), and lowest in Eastern Sub-Saharan Africa (11.8%). From 1990 to 2016, there was a relative increase of 8.9% in global lifetime risk. CONCLUSIONS: The global lifetime risk of stroke is approximately 25% starting at age 25 in both men and women. There is geographical variation in the lifetime risk of stroke, with particularly high risk in East Asia, Central and Eastern Europe.

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