872. PROPHETIC: Predicting Pneumonia in Hospitalized Patients in the ICU—A Model and Scoring System

BACKGROUND: Prospectively identifying patients at highest risk for hospital-acquired and ventilator-associated bacterial pneumonia (HABP/VABP) by implementing a risk assessment scoring tool may help focus prevention efforts, optimize the screening process to improve clinical trial feasibility, and enhance development of new antibacterial agents. METHODS: Within the intensive care units (ICU) of 28 US hospitals, between February 6, 2016 and October 7, 2016, patients hospitalized >48 hours and receiving high levels of respiratory support were prospectively followed for meeting the definition of HABP/VABP recommended in US FDA draft guidance. Patient demographics, medical comorbidities, and treatment exposures were recorded. The association between candidate risk factors and odds of developing HABP/VABP was evaluated with a multivariable logistic regression model. Risk factors were selected using backward selection with α = 0.1 for model inclusion. A web-based scoring system was developed to estimate the risk of HABP/VABP from the risk factors identified. RESULTS: A total of 5,101 patients were enrolled, of whom 1,005 (20%) developed HABP/VABp. 4,613 patients were included in the model, excluding 488 (10%) with HABP/VABP at or before enrollment. There are 15 variables included in the model. APACHE II admission score >20 (P < 0.001, OR 2.14, 95% CI 2.00–2.29), admission diagnosis of trauma (P < 0.001, OR 3.31, 95% CI 1.90–5.74), frequent oral or lower respiratory tract suctioning (P < 0.001, OR 2.33, 95% CI 1.81–2.99), and receipt of enteral nutrition (P < 0.001, OR 2.31, 95% CI 1.69–3.16) were the key drivers of increased pneumonia risk. The model demonstrated excellent discrimination (bias-corrected C-statistic 0.861, 95% CI 0.843–0.880). The web-based scoring system can be accessed via this link: https://ctti-habpvabp.shinyapps.io/web_based_tool/. CONCLUSION: Using a web-based scoring system, ICU patients at highest risk for developing HABP/VABP can be accurately identified. Prospective implementation of this tool may assist in focusing additional prevention efforts on the highest risk patients and enhance new drug development for HABP/VABP. DISCLOSURES: S. P. Bergin, CTTI: Investigator and Scientific Advisor, Research support and Travel to study related meetings. A. Coles, CTTI: Investigator and Scientific Advisor, Salary. S. B. Calvert, CTTI: Employee, Salary. M. J. Zervos, CTTI: Investigator, Research support. A. C. Bardossy, CTTI: Investigator, Research support. M. Kollef, CTTI: Investigator, Research support. M. J. Durkin, CTTI: Investigator, Research support. M. Sims, CTTI: Investigator, Research support. C. Greenshields, CTTI: Investigator, Research support. B. A. Kabchi, CTTI: Investigator, Research support. H. K. Donnelly, CTTI: Collaborator and Scientific Advisor, Research support and Salary. P. Tenaerts, CTTI: Employee, Salary. P. Gu, CTTI: Collaborator, Research support and Salary. V. G. Fowler Jr., CTTI: Investigator and Scientific Advisor, Research support and Salary. Merck: Consultant, Grant Investigator and Scientific Advisor, Consulting fee, Grant recipient and Research support. Cerexa/Actavis/Allegan: Grant Investigator, Grant recipient. Pfizer: Consultant and Grant Investigator, Consulting fee and Grant recipient. Advanced Liquid Logics: Grant Investigator, Grant recipient. NIH: Investigator, Grant recipient, Research support and Salary. MedImmune: Consultant and Grant Investigator, Consulting fee and Grant recipient. Basilea: Consultant and Grant Investigator, Consulting fee and Grant recipient. Karius: Grant Investigator, Grant recipient. Contrafect: Consultant and Grant Investigator, Consulting fee and Grant recipient. Regeneron: Grant Investigator, Grant recipient. Genentech: Consultant and Grant Investigator, Consulting fee and Grant recipient. Achaogen: Consultant, Consulting fee. Astellas: Consultant, Consulting fee. Arsanis: Consultant, Consulting fee. Affinergy: Consultant, Consulting fee. Bayer: Consultant, Consulting fee. Cerexa: Consultant, Consulting fee. Cubist: Consultant, Consulting fee. Debiopharm: Consultant, Consulting fee. Durata: Consultant, Consulting fee. Grifols: Consultant, Consulting fee. Medicines Co.: Consultant, Consulting fee. Novartis: Consultant, Consulting fee. Novadigm: Consultant, Consulting fee. Theravance: Consultant, Consulting fee and Speaker honorarium. xBiotech: Consultant, Consulting fee. Green Cross: Consultant, Speaker honorarium. T. L. Holland, CTTI: Investigator and Scientific Advisor, Research support and Salary.