The longitudinal trajectory of body mass index in the Chinese population: A latent growth curve analysis

AIMS: The objective of this study was to investigate the longitudinal trajectory of BMI in the Chinese population, and to assess whether the gender or other personal characteristics were related to BMI, and whether there was a change in trajectory over time. METHODS: Data were obtained from 3,574 Chinese (5 to 89 years of age) who participated in the 2000–2011 of the China Health and Nutrition Survey. Latent growth curve models were used to investigate the longitudinal trajectory of BMI, and to examine the effect of some personal characteristics on BMI trajectory. RESULTS: The linear model resulted in a mean initial BMI value of 22.90 and a significant mean slope (Ms = 0.19, t = 10.73, p<0.001), suggesting a steady increase in BMI over time for the whole sample. For covariates, the educational level, alcohol and physical activity had differences on initial scores for BMI (β = 0.05, p<0.001; β = -0.12, p<0.05; β = -0.08, p<0.05; respectively.), and the age had differences on both the initial scores and slope for BMI (β = 0.01, p = <0.05; β = -0.03, p<0.01; respectively.). Baseline measures revealed gender-associated differences on initial scores for BMI, and the slope for male was significantly steeper than that for female (β = -0.11, p<0.05). The initial BMI status of Chinese living in the rural areas was significantly higher than that of Chinese living in the urban areas, and the slope for rural status was significantly steeper than that for urban status (β = 0.21, p<0.001). CONCLUSIONS: Results indicated a linear trajectory of BMI in the Chinese population over a 12-year period. The longitudinal trajectories differed by age, gender and urban-rural status, suggesting different interventions should be adopted for different groups.