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Forecasting the incidence of salmonellosis in seniors in Canada: A trend analysis and the potential impact of the demographic shift

Salmonella infections remain an important public health issue in Canada and worldwide. Although the majority of Salmonella cases are self-limiting, some will lead to severe symptoms and occasionally severe invasive infections, especially in vulnerable populations such as seniors. This study was perf...

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Autores principales: Turgeon, Patricia, Ng, Victoria, Murray, Regan, Nesbitt, Andrea
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: Public Library of Science 2018
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6258544/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/30481213
http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0208124
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author Turgeon, Patricia
Ng, Victoria
Murray, Regan
Nesbitt, Andrea
author_facet Turgeon, Patricia
Ng, Victoria
Murray, Regan
Nesbitt, Andrea
author_sort Turgeon, Patricia
collection PubMed
description Salmonella infections remain an important public health issue in Canada and worldwide. Although the majority of Salmonella cases are self-limiting, some will lead to severe symptoms and occasionally severe invasive infections, especially in vulnerable populations such as seniors. This study was performed to assess temporal trends of Salmonella cases in seniors over 15 years (2014–2028) and assess possible impact of demographic shift on national incidence; taking into account of trends in other age groups. The numbers of reported Salmonella cases in seniors (60 years and over) in eight provinces and territories for a period of fifteen years were analysed (1998–2013) using a time-adjusted Poisson regression model. With the demographic changes predicted in the age-structure of the population and in the absence of any targeted interventions, our analysis showed the incidence of Salmonella cases in seniors could increase by 16% by 2028 and the multi-provincial incidence could increase by 5.3%. As a result, the age distribution amongst the Salmonella cases is expected to change with a higher proportion of cases in seniors and a smaller proportion in children (0–4 years old). Over the next decades, cases of infection, hospitalizations and deaths associated with Salmonella in seniors could represent a challenge to public health due to an aging population in Canada. As life expectancy increases in Canada, identification of unique risk factors and targeted prevention in seniors should be pursued to reduce the impact of the demographic shift on disease incidence.
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spelling pubmed-62585442018-12-06 Forecasting the incidence of salmonellosis in seniors in Canada: A trend analysis and the potential impact of the demographic shift Turgeon, Patricia Ng, Victoria Murray, Regan Nesbitt, Andrea PLoS One Research Article Salmonella infections remain an important public health issue in Canada and worldwide. Although the majority of Salmonella cases are self-limiting, some will lead to severe symptoms and occasionally severe invasive infections, especially in vulnerable populations such as seniors. This study was performed to assess temporal trends of Salmonella cases in seniors over 15 years (2014–2028) and assess possible impact of demographic shift on national incidence; taking into account of trends in other age groups. The numbers of reported Salmonella cases in seniors (60 years and over) in eight provinces and territories for a period of fifteen years were analysed (1998–2013) using a time-adjusted Poisson regression model. With the demographic changes predicted in the age-structure of the population and in the absence of any targeted interventions, our analysis showed the incidence of Salmonella cases in seniors could increase by 16% by 2028 and the multi-provincial incidence could increase by 5.3%. As a result, the age distribution amongst the Salmonella cases is expected to change with a higher proportion of cases in seniors and a smaller proportion in children (0–4 years old). Over the next decades, cases of infection, hospitalizations and deaths associated with Salmonella in seniors could represent a challenge to public health due to an aging population in Canada. As life expectancy increases in Canada, identification of unique risk factors and targeted prevention in seniors should be pursued to reduce the impact of the demographic shift on disease incidence. Public Library of Science 2018-11-27 /pmc/articles/PMC6258544/ /pubmed/30481213 http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0208124 Text en © 2018 Turgeon et al http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/) , which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited.
spellingShingle Research Article
Turgeon, Patricia
Ng, Victoria
Murray, Regan
Nesbitt, Andrea
Forecasting the incidence of salmonellosis in seniors in Canada: A trend analysis and the potential impact of the demographic shift
title Forecasting the incidence of salmonellosis in seniors in Canada: A trend analysis and the potential impact of the demographic shift
title_full Forecasting the incidence of salmonellosis in seniors in Canada: A trend analysis and the potential impact of the demographic shift
title_fullStr Forecasting the incidence of salmonellosis in seniors in Canada: A trend analysis and the potential impact of the demographic shift
title_full_unstemmed Forecasting the incidence of salmonellosis in seniors in Canada: A trend analysis and the potential impact of the demographic shift
title_short Forecasting the incidence of salmonellosis in seniors in Canada: A trend analysis and the potential impact of the demographic shift
title_sort forecasting the incidence of salmonellosis in seniors in canada: a trend analysis and the potential impact of the demographic shift
topic Research Article
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6258544/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/30481213
http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0208124
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