Eliminating malaria by 2040 among agricultural households in Africa: potential impact on health, labor productivity, education and gender equality

Background: Ambitious goals have been set to eradicate malaria by the year 2040. Given the high poverty levels and the intense levels of malaria transmission in sub-Saharan Africa, suppressing malaria in rural agricultural communities in these regions will be one of the greatest challenges to achieving malaria eradication. This study has two objectives. The first is to estimate how eradicating malaria by 2040 would affect agricultural households in sub-Saharan Africa. The second is to identify where additional research is needed to develop better estimates of how eradicating malaria by 2040 would affect those households. Methods: Using agricultural census data and malaria morbidity data, we developed estimates of the number of malaria cases in 2018 among agricultural households with fewer than 10 hectares of land for 35 countries in sub-Saharan Africa. By combining these estimates with additional evidence from the literature, we analyzed how achieving malaria eradication by 2040 would affect indicators related to four Sustainable Development Goals: health, poverty, education and gender equality. Results: Our analysis found that achieving malaria eradication by 2040 would prevent approximately 841 million cases of malaria and thereby decrease the number of lost workdays among agricultural households by approximately 3.2 billion days. Eradicating malaria by 2040 would also increase the number of school days attended by children by 1.5 billion days while also reducing the number of caregiving days provided by women for malaria cases by approximately 1.1 billion days. Conclusions: This article analyzes the impact of eradicating malaria among agricultural households in sub-Saharan Africa using indicators related to four of the Sustainable Development Goals. Enhanced data collection efforts related to these four indicators would facilitate more rigorous estimates of how eradicating malaria would affect these indicators over the next two decades.