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Niche squeeze induced by climate change of the cold-tolerant subtropical montane Podocarpus parlatorei

Under changing climates, the persistence of montane subtropical taxa may be threatened as suitable habitats decrease with elevation. We developed future environmental niche models (ENNMs) for Podocarpus parlatorei, the only conifer from southern Yungas in South America, and projected it onto two gre...

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Autores principales: Quiroga, María Paula, Premoli, Andrea C., Kitzberger, Thomas
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: The Royal Society 2018
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6281919/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/30564385
http://dx.doi.org/10.1098/rsos.180513
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author Quiroga, María Paula
Premoli, Andrea C.
Kitzberger, Thomas
author_facet Quiroga, María Paula
Premoli, Andrea C.
Kitzberger, Thomas
author_sort Quiroga, María Paula
collection PubMed
description Under changing climates, the persistence of montane subtropical taxa may be threatened as suitable habitats decrease with elevation. We developed future environmental niche models (ENNMs) for Podocarpus parlatorei, the only conifer from southern Yungas in South America, and projected it onto two greenhouse gas concentration scenarios based on 13 global climate models for the years 2050 and 2070. Modelling identified that P. parlatorei is sensitive and restricted to a relatively narrow range of both warm season temperature and precipitation. By the mid-late twenty-first century areas of high suitability for P. parlatorei will not migrate but overall suitability will become substantially reduced across its whole range and surrounding areas. Despite extensive areas in high mountain ranges where the species may encounter thermally optimal conditions to potentially allow upward local migration, these same areas will likely become strongly aridified under future conditions. On the other hand, in lowland locations where rainfall levels will not change substantially (e.g. northern range), excessive warming will likely generate abiotic and biotic restrictions (e.g. competition with lowland species) for this cold-tolerant species. Urgent measures should be developed for the local long-term preservation of the gene pool of the unique conifer that characterizes Yungas forests for reasons of biodiversity conservation and ecosystem services.
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spelling pubmed-62819192018-12-18 Niche squeeze induced by climate change of the cold-tolerant subtropical montane Podocarpus parlatorei Quiroga, María Paula Premoli, Andrea C. Kitzberger, Thomas R Soc Open Sci Biology (Whole Organism) Under changing climates, the persistence of montane subtropical taxa may be threatened as suitable habitats decrease with elevation. We developed future environmental niche models (ENNMs) for Podocarpus parlatorei, the only conifer from southern Yungas in South America, and projected it onto two greenhouse gas concentration scenarios based on 13 global climate models for the years 2050 and 2070. Modelling identified that P. parlatorei is sensitive and restricted to a relatively narrow range of both warm season temperature and precipitation. By the mid-late twenty-first century areas of high suitability for P. parlatorei will not migrate but overall suitability will become substantially reduced across its whole range and surrounding areas. Despite extensive areas in high mountain ranges where the species may encounter thermally optimal conditions to potentially allow upward local migration, these same areas will likely become strongly aridified under future conditions. On the other hand, in lowland locations where rainfall levels will not change substantially (e.g. northern range), excessive warming will likely generate abiotic and biotic restrictions (e.g. competition with lowland species) for this cold-tolerant species. Urgent measures should be developed for the local long-term preservation of the gene pool of the unique conifer that characterizes Yungas forests for reasons of biodiversity conservation and ecosystem services. The Royal Society 2018-11-28 /pmc/articles/PMC6281919/ /pubmed/30564385 http://dx.doi.org/10.1098/rsos.180513 Text en © 2018 The Authors. http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ Published by the Royal Society under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/, which permits unrestricted use, provided the original author and source are credited.
spellingShingle Biology (Whole Organism)
Quiroga, María Paula
Premoli, Andrea C.
Kitzberger, Thomas
Niche squeeze induced by climate change of the cold-tolerant subtropical montane Podocarpus parlatorei
title Niche squeeze induced by climate change of the cold-tolerant subtropical montane Podocarpus parlatorei
title_full Niche squeeze induced by climate change of the cold-tolerant subtropical montane Podocarpus parlatorei
title_fullStr Niche squeeze induced by climate change of the cold-tolerant subtropical montane Podocarpus parlatorei
title_full_unstemmed Niche squeeze induced by climate change of the cold-tolerant subtropical montane Podocarpus parlatorei
title_short Niche squeeze induced by climate change of the cold-tolerant subtropical montane Podocarpus parlatorei
title_sort niche squeeze induced by climate change of the cold-tolerant subtropical montane podocarpus parlatorei
topic Biology (Whole Organism)
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6281919/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/30564385
http://dx.doi.org/10.1098/rsos.180513
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