Predictive value of venous thromboembolism (VTE)‐BLEED to predict major bleeding and other adverse events in a practice‐based cohort of patients with VTE: results of the XALIA study

Venous thromboembolism (VTE)‐BLEED, a decision tool for predicting major bleeding during chronic anticoagulation for VTE has not yet been validated in practice‐based conditions. We calculated the prognostic indices of VTE‐BLEED for major bleeding after day 30 and day 90, as well as for recurrent VTE and all‐cause mortality, in 4457 patients enrolled in the international, prospective XALIA study. The median at‐risk time was 190 days (interquartile range 106–360). The crude hazard ratio (HR) for major bleeding after day 30 was 2·6 [95% confidence interval (CI) 1·3–5·2] and the treatment‐adjusted HR was 2·3 (95% CI 1·1–4·5) for VTE‐BLEED high (versus low) risk patients: the corresponding values for major bleeding after day 90 were 3·8 (95% CI 1·6–9·3) and 3·2 (95% CI 1·3–7·7), respectively. The predictive value of VTE‐BLEED was similar in selected patients with unprovoked VTE or those treated with rivaroxaban. High VTE‐BLEED score was associated with higher incidence of all‐cause mortality (treatment‐adjusted HR 11, 95% CI 4·8–23), but not evidently with recurrent VTE (treatment‐adjusted HR 1·5; 95% CI 0·85–2·7). These results confirm the predictive value of VTE‐BLEED in practice‐based data in patients treated with rivaroxaban or conventional anticoagulation, supporting the hypothesis that VTE‐BLEED may be useful for making management decisions on the duration of anticoagulant therapy.