Preoperative prediction of peripancreatic vein invasion by pancreatic head cancer

BACKGROUND: Pancreatic adenocarcinoma is often diagnosed at an advanced stage when adjacent vascular invasion is present. Accurate evaluation of presence of vascular invasion can help guide therapy. The aim of this study was to construct a nomogram for preoperative prediction of peripancreatic vein invasion in patients with pancreatic head cancer. STUDY DESIGN: Data of patients with carcinoma head of pancreas and suspected peripancreatic invasion (n = 247) who underwent pancreatic resection with venous reconstruction between January 2012 and January 2017 at four academic institutions were retrospectively analyzed. Univariate and multivariate analyses were used to identify independent risk factors for vein invasion from among demographic, biological, conditional host-related, and anatomical data. A predictive nomogram was constructed based on the identified independent risk factors. RESULTS: The nomogram was constructed using data from 181 patients while the validation cohort consisted of 66 patients. Length of tumor contact (P = 0.031), circumferential vein involvement (P = 0.048), and venous contour abnormalities (P = 0.001) were independent predictors of venous invasion. The C-index of the model in predicting venous invasion was 0.963 for the external validation cohort. Patients could be assigned into low- (< 50%), intermediate- (50–90%), and high-risk (> 90%) groups based on the nomogram to facilitate personalized management. CONCLUSIONS: Vein invasion by pancreatic head cancer is mainly associated with anatomical factors. The nomogram for prediction of vein invasion was found to be practicable. ELECTRONIC SUPPLEMENTARY MATERIAL: The online version of this article (10.1186/s40644-018-0179-z) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.