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Prioritizing surveillance activities for certification of yaws eradication based on a review and model of historical case reporting

BACKGROUND: The World Health Organization (WHO) has targeted yaws for global eradication. Eradication requires certification that all countries are yaws-free. While only 14 Member States currently report cases to WHO, many more are known to have a history of yaws and some of them may have ongoing tr...

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Autores principales: Fitzpatrick, Christopher, Asiedu, Kingsley, Solomon, Anthony W., Mitja, Oriol, Marks, Michael, Van der Stuyft, Patrick, Meheus, Filip
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: Public Library of Science 2018
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6294396/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/30513075
http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pntd.0006953
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author Fitzpatrick, Christopher
Asiedu, Kingsley
Solomon, Anthony W.
Mitja, Oriol
Marks, Michael
Van der Stuyft, Patrick
Meheus, Filip
author_facet Fitzpatrick, Christopher
Asiedu, Kingsley
Solomon, Anthony W.
Mitja, Oriol
Marks, Michael
Van der Stuyft, Patrick
Meheus, Filip
author_sort Fitzpatrick, Christopher
collection PubMed
description BACKGROUND: The World Health Organization (WHO) has targeted yaws for global eradication. Eradication requires certification that all countries are yaws-free. While only 14 Member States currently report cases to WHO, many more are known to have a history of yaws and some of them may have ongoing transmission. We reviewed the literature and developed a model of case reports to identify countries in which passive surveillance is likely to find and report cases if transmission is still occurring, with the goal of reducing the number of countries in which more costly active surveillance will be required. METHODS: We reviewed published and unpublished documents to extract data on the number of yaws cases reported to WHO or appearing in other literature in any year between 1945 and 2015. We classified countries as: a) having interrupted transmission; b) being currently endemic; c) being previously endemic (current status unknown); or d) having no history of yaws. We constructed a panel dataset for the years 1945–2015 and ran a regression model to identify factors associated with some countries not reporting cases during periods when there was ongoing (and documented) transmission. For previously endemic countries whose current status is unknown, we then estimated the probability that countries would have reported cases if there had in fact been transmission in the last three years (2013–2015). RESULTS: Yaws has been reported in 103 of the 237 countries and areas considered. 14 Member States and 1 territory (Wallis and Futuna Islands) are currently endemic. 2 countries are believed to have interrupted transmission. 86 countries and areas are previously endemic (current status unknown). Reported cases peaked in the 1950s, with 55 countries reporting at least one case in 1950 and a total of 2.35 million cases reported in 1954. Our regression model suggests that case reporting during periods of ongoing transmission is positively associated with socioeconomic development and, in the short-term, negatively associated with independence. We estimated that for 66 out of the 86 previously endemic countries whose current status is unknown, the probability of reporting cases in the absence of active surveillance is less than 50%. DISCUSSION: Countries with a history of yaws need to be prioritized so that international resources for global yaws eradication may be deployed efficiently. Heretofore, the focus has been on mass treatment in countries currently reporting cases. It is also important to undertake surveillance in the 86 previously endemic countries for which the current status is unknown. Within this large and diverse group, we have identified a group of 20 countries with more than a 50% probability of reporting cases in the absence of active surveillance. For the other 66 countries, international support for active surveillance will likely be required.
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spelling pubmed-62943962018-12-28 Prioritizing surveillance activities for certification of yaws eradication based on a review and model of historical case reporting Fitzpatrick, Christopher Asiedu, Kingsley Solomon, Anthony W. Mitja, Oriol Marks, Michael Van der Stuyft, Patrick Meheus, Filip PLoS Negl Trop Dis Research Article BACKGROUND: The World Health Organization (WHO) has targeted yaws for global eradication. Eradication requires certification that all countries are yaws-free. While only 14 Member States currently report cases to WHO, many more are known to have a history of yaws and some of them may have ongoing transmission. We reviewed the literature and developed a model of case reports to identify countries in which passive surveillance is likely to find and report cases if transmission is still occurring, with the goal of reducing the number of countries in which more costly active surveillance will be required. METHODS: We reviewed published and unpublished documents to extract data on the number of yaws cases reported to WHO or appearing in other literature in any year between 1945 and 2015. We classified countries as: a) having interrupted transmission; b) being currently endemic; c) being previously endemic (current status unknown); or d) having no history of yaws. We constructed a panel dataset for the years 1945–2015 and ran a regression model to identify factors associated with some countries not reporting cases during periods when there was ongoing (and documented) transmission. For previously endemic countries whose current status is unknown, we then estimated the probability that countries would have reported cases if there had in fact been transmission in the last three years (2013–2015). RESULTS: Yaws has been reported in 103 of the 237 countries and areas considered. 14 Member States and 1 territory (Wallis and Futuna Islands) are currently endemic. 2 countries are believed to have interrupted transmission. 86 countries and areas are previously endemic (current status unknown). Reported cases peaked in the 1950s, with 55 countries reporting at least one case in 1950 and a total of 2.35 million cases reported in 1954. Our regression model suggests that case reporting during periods of ongoing transmission is positively associated with socioeconomic development and, in the short-term, negatively associated with independence. We estimated that for 66 out of the 86 previously endemic countries whose current status is unknown, the probability of reporting cases in the absence of active surveillance is less than 50%. DISCUSSION: Countries with a history of yaws need to be prioritized so that international resources for global yaws eradication may be deployed efficiently. Heretofore, the focus has been on mass treatment in countries currently reporting cases. It is also important to undertake surveillance in the 86 previously endemic countries for which the current status is unknown. Within this large and diverse group, we have identified a group of 20 countries with more than a 50% probability of reporting cases in the absence of active surveillance. For the other 66 countries, international support for active surveillance will likely be required. Public Library of Science 2018-12-04 /pmc/articles/PMC6294396/ /pubmed/30513075 http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pntd.0006953 Text en © 2018 Fitzpatrick et al http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/) , which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited.
spellingShingle Research Article
Fitzpatrick, Christopher
Asiedu, Kingsley
Solomon, Anthony W.
Mitja, Oriol
Marks, Michael
Van der Stuyft, Patrick
Meheus, Filip
Prioritizing surveillance activities for certification of yaws eradication based on a review and model of historical case reporting
title Prioritizing surveillance activities for certification of yaws eradication based on a review and model of historical case reporting
title_full Prioritizing surveillance activities for certification of yaws eradication based on a review and model of historical case reporting
title_fullStr Prioritizing surveillance activities for certification of yaws eradication based on a review and model of historical case reporting
title_full_unstemmed Prioritizing surveillance activities for certification of yaws eradication based on a review and model of historical case reporting
title_short Prioritizing surveillance activities for certification of yaws eradication based on a review and model of historical case reporting
title_sort prioritizing surveillance activities for certification of yaws eradication based on a review and model of historical case reporting
topic Research Article
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6294396/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/30513075
http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pntd.0006953
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