The impact of pneumococcal vaccination on pneumonia mortality among the elderly in Japan: a difference-in-difference study

BACKGROUND: It is plausible that the routine immunization among infants using pneumococcal conjugate vaccine 13 (PCV13) from 2013 and among the elderly using pneumococcal polysaccharide vaccine 23 (PPV23) from 2014 contributed to reducing the pneumonia mortality among the elderly in Japan. The present study aimed to estimate the causal effect of this vaccination on pneumonia mortality, using the available cause-of-death data and employing a difference-in-difference (DID) design. METHODS: Two types of mortality data, that is, prefecture-dependent and age- and gender-specific mortality data, from 2003 to 2017 were retrieved. We used mortality due to malignant neoplasm and heart disease as control groups and employed a DID design with an assumed parallel mortality trend between pneumonia and control group mortality since 2013 to estimate the causal effect of pneumococcal vaccination from 2014. RESULTS: Our estimation based on malignant neoplasm and heart disease as controls indicated that the reduced pneumonia mortality in 2017 owing to pneumococcal vaccination was as large as 41.9 (33.2, 50.6) and 31.2 (23.8, 38.6) per 100,000 individuals, respectively. The largest mortality reduction was observed for the oldest group (aged ≥90 years), especially among men. DISCUSSION: The pneumococcal vaccination program, perhaps mainly represented by high vaccination coverage of PCV13 among children and partly by PPV23 administration with low coverage among the elderly in Japan, was shown to have reduced the pneumonia mortality in the elderly at the population level.