Laboratory prognostic score for predicting 30-day mortality in terminally ill cancer patients

Conventional prognostic scores for terminally ill cancer patients may have less objectivity because they include subjective or categorical variables that do not consider intensity or severity. The aim of this study was to identify prognostic factors for 30-day mortality from routine blood examination of terminally ill cancer patients. A total of 1308 study patients in a hospice setting were divided into investigation (n=761) and validation (n=547) groups. Twenty laboratory blood parameters were analyzed. Multivariate analysis revealed that ten variables (C-reactive protein ≥5.4 mg/dL, serum albumin <2.8 g/dL, blood urea nitrogen ≥21 mg/dL, white blood cell count ≥8.600 × 10(3)/μL, eosinophil percentage <0.8%, neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio ≥11.1, hemoglobin level ≥ 13.2 g/dL, mean corpuscular volume ≥ 93.7 fl, red cell distribution width ≥ 16, and platelet count < 159 × 10(3)/μL) were significant independent prognostic factors for 30-day survival. The laboratory prognostic score (LPS) was calculated by the sum of blood indices among the ten variables. The LPS showed acceptable accuracy for 30-day mortality in the investigation and validation groups. LPS 5 (including any five factors) predicted death within 30 days, with a sensitivity of 85%, a specificity of 55%, a positive predictive value of 72%, and a negative predictive value of 74%. The predictive value of LPS was comparable to those of conventional prognostic scores, which include signs and symptoms. The LPS can provide additional information to conventional prognostic scores.