Predicting performance on the United States Medical Licensing Examination Step 1 and Step 2 Clinical Knowledge using results from previous examinations

BACKGROUND: Finding early specific indicators of failure in the United States Medical Licensing Examination (USMLE) Step 1 and Step 2 Clinical Knowledge (CK) could be used to develop early interventions that could solve deficiencies and help at-risk students to ultimately attain a passing score. This study was aimed at determining if the National Board of Medical Examiners (NBME) Comprehensive Basic Science Examination (CBSE) could predict a passing score during the USMLE Step 1. We also assessed if the NBME Medicine Clinical Science Subject Examination (CSSE) or the USMLE Step 1 could predict passing scores during the USMLE Step 2 CK. METHODS: Gender and scores from 724 students who took the USMLE Step 1 were linked and analyzed with the scores of the NBME CBSE, the NBME Medicine CSSE, and the USMLE Step 2 CK using IBM-SPSS. RESULTS: There were significant correlations between the scores from NBME CBSE and USMLE Step 1 (r=0.73, P≤0.001), between the scores from the NBME Medicine CSSE and the USMLE Step 2 CK (r=0.572, P≤0.001), and between the scores from the USMLE Step 1 and Step 2 CK (r=0.698, P≤0.001). Students with scores <66 in the NBME CBSE were less likely to approve the USMLE Step 1 on their first attempt (P≤0.00001). There was a significant correlation (r=0.684, P≤0.0001) between a score of ≥208 in the USMLE Step 1 and passing the Step 2 CK on the first attempt. CONCLUSION: A score <66 in the NBME CBSE might indicate failure during the USMLE Step 1 first take. Similarly, a score <208 in the USMLE Step 1 might predict failure in the USMLE Step 2 CK.