Cargando…

Mapping the global potential distributions of two arboviral vectors Aedes aegypti and Ae. albopictus under changing climate

BACKGROUND: Aedes aegypti and Ae. albopictus are the primary vectors that transmit several arboviral diseases, including dengue, chikungunya, and Zika. The world is presently experiencing a series of outbreaks of these diseases, so, we still require to better understand the current distributions and...

Descripción completa

Detalles Bibliográficos
Autores principales: Kamal, Mahmoud, Kenawy, Mohamed A., Rady, Magda Hassan, Khaled, Amany Soliman, Samy, Abdallah M.
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: Public Library of Science 2018
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6312308/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/30596764
http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0210122
_version_ 1783383757952122880
author Kamal, Mahmoud
Kenawy, Mohamed A.
Rady, Magda Hassan
Khaled, Amany Soliman
Samy, Abdallah M.
author_facet Kamal, Mahmoud
Kenawy, Mohamed A.
Rady, Magda Hassan
Khaled, Amany Soliman
Samy, Abdallah M.
author_sort Kamal, Mahmoud
collection PubMed
description BACKGROUND: Aedes aegypti and Ae. albopictus are the primary vectors that transmit several arboviral diseases, including dengue, chikungunya, and Zika. The world is presently experiencing a series of outbreaks of these diseases, so, we still require to better understand the current distributions and possible future shifts of their vectors for successful surveillance and control programs. Few studies assessed the influences of climate change on the spatial distributional patterns and abundance of these important vectors, particularly using the most recent climatic scenarios. Here, we updated the current potential distributions of both vectors and assessed their distributional changes under future climate conditions. METHODS: We used ecological niche modeling approach to estimate the potential distributions of Ae. aegypti and Ae. albopictus under present-day and future climate conditions. This approach fits ecological niche model from occurrence records of each species and environmental variables. For each species, future projections were based on climatic data from 9 general circulation models (GCMs) for each representative concentration pathway (RCP) in each time period, with a total of 72 combinations in four RCPs in 2050 and 2070. All ENMs were tested using the partial receiver operating characteristic (pROC) and a set of 2,048 and 2,003 additional independent records for Ae. aegypti and Ae. albopictus, respectively. Finally, we used background similarity test to assess the similarity between the ENMs of Ae. aegypti and Ae. albopictus. RESULTS: The predicted potential distribution of Ae. aegypti and Ae. albopictus coincided with the current and historical known distributions of both species. Aedes aegypti showed a markedly broader distributional potential across tropical and subtropical regions than Ae. albopictus. Interestingly, Ae. albopictus was markedly broader in distributional potential across temperate Europe and the United States. All ecological niche models (ENMs) were statistically robust (P < 0.001). ENMs successfully anticipated 98% (1,999/2,048) and 99% (1,985/2,003) of additional independent records for both Ae. aegypti and Ae. albopictus, respectively (P < 0.001). ENMs based on future conditions showed similarity between the overall distributional patterns of future-day and present-day conditions; however, there was a northern range expansion in the continental USA to include parts of Southern Canada in case of Ae. albopictus in both 2050 and 2070. Future models also anticipated further expansion of Ae. albopictus to the East to include most of Europe in both time periods. Aedes aegypti was anticipated to expand to the South in East Australia in 2050 and 2070. The predictions showed differences in distributional potential of both species between diverse RCPs in 2050 and 2070. Finally, the background similarity test comparing the ENMs of Ae. aegypti and Ae. albopictus was unable to reject the null hypothesis of niche similarity between both species (P > 0.05). CONCLUSION: These updated maps provided details to better guide surveillance and control programs of Ae. aegypti and Ae. albopictus. They have also significant public health importance as a baseline for predicting the emergence of arboviral diseases transmitted by both vectors in new areas across the world.
format Online
Article
Text
id pubmed-6312308
institution National Center for Biotechnology Information
language English
publishDate 2018
publisher Public Library of Science
record_format MEDLINE/PubMed
spelling pubmed-63123082019-01-08 Mapping the global potential distributions of two arboviral vectors Aedes aegypti and Ae. albopictus under changing climate Kamal, Mahmoud Kenawy, Mohamed A. Rady, Magda Hassan Khaled, Amany Soliman Samy, Abdallah M. PLoS One Research Article BACKGROUND: Aedes aegypti and Ae. albopictus are the primary vectors that transmit several arboviral diseases, including dengue, chikungunya, and Zika. The world is presently experiencing a series of outbreaks of these diseases, so, we still require to better understand the current distributions and possible future shifts of their vectors for successful surveillance and control programs. Few studies assessed the influences of climate change on the spatial distributional patterns and abundance of these important vectors, particularly using the most recent climatic scenarios. Here, we updated the current potential distributions of both vectors and assessed their distributional changes under future climate conditions. METHODS: We used ecological niche modeling approach to estimate the potential distributions of Ae. aegypti and Ae. albopictus under present-day and future climate conditions. This approach fits ecological niche model from occurrence records of each species and environmental variables. For each species, future projections were based on climatic data from 9 general circulation models (GCMs) for each representative concentration pathway (RCP) in each time period, with a total of 72 combinations in four RCPs in 2050 and 2070. All ENMs were tested using the partial receiver operating characteristic (pROC) and a set of 2,048 and 2,003 additional independent records for Ae. aegypti and Ae. albopictus, respectively. Finally, we used background similarity test to assess the similarity between the ENMs of Ae. aegypti and Ae. albopictus. RESULTS: The predicted potential distribution of Ae. aegypti and Ae. albopictus coincided with the current and historical known distributions of both species. Aedes aegypti showed a markedly broader distributional potential across tropical and subtropical regions than Ae. albopictus. Interestingly, Ae. albopictus was markedly broader in distributional potential across temperate Europe and the United States. All ecological niche models (ENMs) were statistically robust (P < 0.001). ENMs successfully anticipated 98% (1,999/2,048) and 99% (1,985/2,003) of additional independent records for both Ae. aegypti and Ae. albopictus, respectively (P < 0.001). ENMs based on future conditions showed similarity between the overall distributional patterns of future-day and present-day conditions; however, there was a northern range expansion in the continental USA to include parts of Southern Canada in case of Ae. albopictus in both 2050 and 2070. Future models also anticipated further expansion of Ae. albopictus to the East to include most of Europe in both time periods. Aedes aegypti was anticipated to expand to the South in East Australia in 2050 and 2070. The predictions showed differences in distributional potential of both species between diverse RCPs in 2050 and 2070. Finally, the background similarity test comparing the ENMs of Ae. aegypti and Ae. albopictus was unable to reject the null hypothesis of niche similarity between both species (P > 0.05). CONCLUSION: These updated maps provided details to better guide surveillance and control programs of Ae. aegypti and Ae. albopictus. They have also significant public health importance as a baseline for predicting the emergence of arboviral diseases transmitted by both vectors in new areas across the world. Public Library of Science 2018-12-31 /pmc/articles/PMC6312308/ /pubmed/30596764 http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0210122 Text en © 2018 Kamal et al http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/) , which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited.
spellingShingle Research Article
Kamal, Mahmoud
Kenawy, Mohamed A.
Rady, Magda Hassan
Khaled, Amany Soliman
Samy, Abdallah M.
Mapping the global potential distributions of two arboviral vectors Aedes aegypti and Ae. albopictus under changing climate
title Mapping the global potential distributions of two arboviral vectors Aedes aegypti and Ae. albopictus under changing climate
title_full Mapping the global potential distributions of two arboviral vectors Aedes aegypti and Ae. albopictus under changing climate
title_fullStr Mapping the global potential distributions of two arboviral vectors Aedes aegypti and Ae. albopictus under changing climate
title_full_unstemmed Mapping the global potential distributions of two arboviral vectors Aedes aegypti and Ae. albopictus under changing climate
title_short Mapping the global potential distributions of two arboviral vectors Aedes aegypti and Ae. albopictus under changing climate
title_sort mapping the global potential distributions of two arboviral vectors aedes aegypti and ae. albopictus under changing climate
topic Research Article
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6312308/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/30596764
http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0210122
work_keys_str_mv AT kamalmahmoud mappingtheglobalpotentialdistributionsoftwoarboviralvectorsaedesaegyptiandaealbopictusunderchangingclimate
AT kenawymohameda mappingtheglobalpotentialdistributionsoftwoarboviralvectorsaedesaegyptiandaealbopictusunderchangingclimate
AT radymagdahassan mappingtheglobalpotentialdistributionsoftwoarboviralvectorsaedesaegyptiandaealbopictusunderchangingclimate
AT khaledamanysoliman mappingtheglobalpotentialdistributionsoftwoarboviralvectorsaedesaegyptiandaealbopictusunderchangingclimate
AT samyabdallahm mappingtheglobalpotentialdistributionsoftwoarboviralvectorsaedesaegyptiandaealbopictusunderchangingclimate