Identifying potential areas of expansion for the endangered brown bear (Ursus arctos) population in the Cantabrian Mountains (NW Spain)

Many large carnivore populations are expanding into human-modified landscapes and the subsequent increase in coexistence between humans and large carnivores may intensify various types of conflicts. A proactive management approach is critical to successful mitigation of such conflicts. The Cantabrian Mountains in Northern Spain are home to the last remaining native brown bear (Ursus arctos) population of the Iberian Peninsula, which is also amongst the most severely threatened European populations, with an important core group residing in the province of Asturias. There are indications that this small population is demographically expanding its range. The identification of the potential areas of brown bear range expansion is crucial to facilitate proactive conservation and management strategies towards promoting a further recovery of this small and isolated population. Here, we used a presence-only based maximum entropy (MaxEnt) approach to model habitat suitability and identify the areas in the Asturian portion of the Cantabrian Mountains that are likely to be occupied in the future by this endangered brown bear population following its range expansion. We used different spatial scales to identify brown bear range suitability according to different environmental, topographic, climatic and human impact variables. Our models mainly show that: (1) 4977 km(2) are still available as suitable areas for bear range expansion, which represents nearly half of the territory of Asturias; (2) most of the suitable areas in the western part of the province are already occupied (77% of identified areas, 2820 km(2)), 41.4% of them occurring inside protected areas, which leaves relatively limited good areas for further expansion in this part of the province, although there might be more suitable areas in surrounding provinces; and (3) in the eastern sector of the Asturian Cantabrian Mountains, 62% (2155 km(2)) of the land was classified as suitable, and this part of the province hosts 44.3% of the total area identified as suitable areas for range expansion. Our results further highlight the importance of increasing: (a) the connectivity between the currently occupied western part of Asturias and the areas of potential range expansion in the eastern parts of the province; and (b) the protection of the eastern sector of the Cantabrian Mountains, where most of the future population expansion may be expected.