Prognostic value of pre-dialysis blood pressure and risk threshold on clinical outcomes in hemodialysis patients: The Q-Cohort Study

The influence of pre-dialysis blood pressure (BP) on the prognosis of hemodialysis (HD) patients is still inconclusive. A total of 3436 HD patients were prospectively followed up for 4 years. The patients were divided into quintiles of pre-dialysis systolic BP (SBP) and diastolic BP (DBP) levels [mm Hg]: Quintile 1 (Q1), SBP <134, DBP <66; Q2, SBP 134 to 147, DBP 66 to 72; Q3, SBP 148 to 158, DBP 73 to 79; Q4, SBP 159 to 171, DBP 80 to 85; Q5, SBP ≥172, DBP ≥86. The association between the pre-dialysis BP and outcomes were examined using a Cox proportional hazards model. During a 4-year follow-up period, 564 (16.4%) patients died of any cause and 590 (17.2%) developed cardiovascular (CV) events. The lowest level of pre-dialysis SBP group (Q1) showed a significantly increased risk of all-cause mortality (hazard ratio [HR] 1.83, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.40–2.39) and the highest group (Q5) significantly increased risk of CV events (HR 1.31, 95% CI 1.02–1.68) compared with the reference group (Q3), respectively. The highest level of pre-dialysis DBP group was significantly associated with increased risk for both all-cause mortality and CV events. Restricted cubic spline analysis for BP and outcomes suggested the optimal pre-dialysis BP value associated with the lowest risk of outcomes was SBP 152 mm Hg for all-cause mortality, SBP 143 mm Hg for CV events, and DBP 68 mm Hg for all-cause mortality. Our results suggested that pre-dialysis BP was independently associated with all-cause mortality and CV events among Japanese HD patients.