NMR-based metabolomics identifies patients at high risk of death within two years after acute myocardial infarction in the AMI-Florence II cohort

BACKGROUND: Risk stratification and management of acute myocardial infarction patients continue to be challenging despite considerable efforts made in the last decades by many clinicians and researchers. The aim of this study was to investigate the metabolomic fingerprint of acute myocardial infarction using nuclear magnetic resonance spectroscopy on patient serum samples and to evaluate the possible role of metabolomics in the prognostic stratification of acute myocardial infarction patients. METHODS: In total, 978 acute myocardial infarction patients were enrolled in this study; of these, 146 died and 832 survived during 2 years of follow-up after the acute myocardial infarction. Serum samples were analyzed via high-resolution (1)H-nuclear magnetic resonance spectroscopy and the spectra were used to characterize the metabolic fingerprint of patients. Multivariate statistics were used to create a prognostic model for the prediction of death within 2 years after the cardiovascular event. RESULTS: In the training set, metabolomics showed significant differential clustering of the two outcomes cohorts. A prognostic risk model predicted death with 76.9% sensitivity, 79.5% specificity, and 78.2% accuracy, and an area under the receiver operating characteristics curve of 0.859. These results were reproduced in the validation set, obtaining 72.6% sensitivity, 72.6% specificity, and 72.6% accuracy. Cox models were used to compare the known prognostic factors (for example, Global Registry of Acute Coronary Events score, age, sex, Killip class) with the metabolomic random forest risk score. In the univariate analysis, many prognostic factors were statistically associated with the outcomes; among them, the random forest score calculated from the nuclear magnetic resonance data showed a statistically relevant hazard ratio of 6.45 (p = 2.16×10(−16)). Moreover, in the multivariate regression only age, dyslipidemia, previous cerebrovascular disease, Killip class, and random forest score remained statistically significant, demonstrating their independence from the other variables. CONCLUSIONS: For the first time, metabolomic profiling technologies were used to discriminate between patients with different outcomes after an acute myocardial infarction. These technologies seem to be a valid and accurate addition to standard stratification based on clinical and biohumoral parameters. ELECTRONIC SUPPLEMENTARY MATERIAL: The online version of this article (10.1186/s12916-018-1240-2) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.