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Forecasting imbalances of human resources for health in the Thailand health service system: application of a health demand method
BACKGROUND: For an effective health system, human resources for health (HRH) planning should be aligned with health system needs. To provide evidence-based information to support HRH plan and policy, we should develop strategies to quantify health workforce requirements and supply. The aim of this s...
Autores principales: | , , , , |
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Formato: | Online Artículo Texto |
Lenguaje: | English |
Publicado: |
BioMed Central
2019
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Materias: | |
Acceso en línea: | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6325808/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/30621716 http://dx.doi.org/10.1186/s12960-018-0336-2 |
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author | Pagaiya, Nonglak Phanthunane, Pudtan Bamrung, Adun Noree, Thinakorn Kongweerakul, Karnwarin |
author_facet | Pagaiya, Nonglak Phanthunane, Pudtan Bamrung, Adun Noree, Thinakorn Kongweerakul, Karnwarin |
author_sort | Pagaiya, Nonglak |
collection | PubMed |
description | BACKGROUND: For an effective health system, human resources for health (HRH) planning should be aligned with health system needs. To provide evidence-based information to support HRH plan and policy, we should develop strategies to quantify health workforce requirements and supply. The aim of this study is to project HRH requirements for the Thai health service system in 2026. HRH included in this study were doctors, dentists, nurses, pharmacists, medical technicians (MTs), physiotherapists (PTs), and Thai traditional medicine (TTM) practitioners. METHODS AND RESULTS: The study mainly relied on the secondary data in relation to service utilization and population projection together with expert opinions. Health demand method was employed to forecast the HRH requirements based on the forecasted service utilizations. The results were then converted into HRH requirements using the staffing norm and productivity. The HRH supply projection was based on the stock and flow approach in which current stock and the flow in and out were taken into account in the projection. The results showed that in 2026, nurses are likely to be in critical shortages. The supply of doctors, pharmacists, and PTs is likely to be surplus. The HRH requirements are likely to match with the supply in cases of dentists, MTs, and TTM practitioners. CONCLUSION: In 2026, the supply of key professionals is likely to be sufficient except nurses who will be in critical shortages. The health demand method, although facing some limitations, is useful to project HRH requirements in such a situation that people are accessible to health services and future service utilizations are closely linked to current utilization rates. |
format | Online Article Text |
id | pubmed-6325808 |
institution | National Center for Biotechnology Information |
language | English |
publishDate | 2019 |
publisher | BioMed Central |
record_format | MEDLINE/PubMed |
spelling | pubmed-63258082019-01-11 Forecasting imbalances of human resources for health in the Thailand health service system: application of a health demand method Pagaiya, Nonglak Phanthunane, Pudtan Bamrung, Adun Noree, Thinakorn Kongweerakul, Karnwarin Hum Resour Health Research BACKGROUND: For an effective health system, human resources for health (HRH) planning should be aligned with health system needs. To provide evidence-based information to support HRH plan and policy, we should develop strategies to quantify health workforce requirements and supply. The aim of this study is to project HRH requirements for the Thai health service system in 2026. HRH included in this study were doctors, dentists, nurses, pharmacists, medical technicians (MTs), physiotherapists (PTs), and Thai traditional medicine (TTM) practitioners. METHODS AND RESULTS: The study mainly relied on the secondary data in relation to service utilization and population projection together with expert opinions. Health demand method was employed to forecast the HRH requirements based on the forecasted service utilizations. The results were then converted into HRH requirements using the staffing norm and productivity. The HRH supply projection was based on the stock and flow approach in which current stock and the flow in and out were taken into account in the projection. The results showed that in 2026, nurses are likely to be in critical shortages. The supply of doctors, pharmacists, and PTs is likely to be surplus. The HRH requirements are likely to match with the supply in cases of dentists, MTs, and TTM practitioners. CONCLUSION: In 2026, the supply of key professionals is likely to be sufficient except nurses who will be in critical shortages. The health demand method, although facing some limitations, is useful to project HRH requirements in such a situation that people are accessible to health services and future service utilizations are closely linked to current utilization rates. BioMed Central 2019-01-08 /pmc/articles/PMC6325808/ /pubmed/30621716 http://dx.doi.org/10.1186/s12960-018-0336-2 Text en © The Author(s). 2019 Open AccessThis article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/), which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons license, and indicate if changes were made. The Creative Commons Public Domain Dedication waiver (http://creativecommons.org/publicdomain/zero/1.0/) applies to the data made available in this article, unless otherwise stated. |
spellingShingle | Research Pagaiya, Nonglak Phanthunane, Pudtan Bamrung, Adun Noree, Thinakorn Kongweerakul, Karnwarin Forecasting imbalances of human resources for health in the Thailand health service system: application of a health demand method |
title | Forecasting imbalances of human resources for health in the Thailand health service system: application of a health demand method |
title_full | Forecasting imbalances of human resources for health in the Thailand health service system: application of a health demand method |
title_fullStr | Forecasting imbalances of human resources for health in the Thailand health service system: application of a health demand method |
title_full_unstemmed | Forecasting imbalances of human resources for health in the Thailand health service system: application of a health demand method |
title_short | Forecasting imbalances of human resources for health in the Thailand health service system: application of a health demand method |
title_sort | forecasting imbalances of human resources for health in the thailand health service system: application of a health demand method |
topic | Research |
url | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6325808/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/30621716 http://dx.doi.org/10.1186/s12960-018-0336-2 |
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