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Distribution of Anopheles vectors and potential malaria transmission stability in Europe and the Mediterranean area under future climate change

BACKGROUND: In the scope of climate change the possible recurrence and/or expansion of vector-borne diseases poses a major concern. The occurrence of vector competent Anopheles species as well as favorable climatic conditions may lead to the re-emergence of autochthonous malaria in Europe and the Me...

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Autor principal: Hertig, Elke
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: BioMed Central 2019
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6325871/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/30621785
http://dx.doi.org/10.1186/s13071-018-3278-6
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author Hertig, Elke
author_facet Hertig, Elke
author_sort Hertig, Elke
collection PubMed
description BACKGROUND: In the scope of climate change the possible recurrence and/or expansion of vector-borne diseases poses a major concern. The occurrence of vector competent Anopheles species as well as favorable climatic conditions may lead to the re-emergence of autochthonous malaria in Europe and the Mediterranean area. However, high-resolution assessments of possible changes of Anopheles vector distributions and of potential malaria transmission stability in the European-Mediterranean area under changing climatic conditions during the course of the 21st century are not available yet. METHODS: Boosted Regression Trees are applied to relate climate variables and land cover classes to vector occurrences. Changes in future vector distributions and potential malaria transmission stability due to climate change are assessed using state-of-the art regional climate model simulations. RESULTS: Distinct changes in the distributions of the dominant vectors of human malaria are to be expected under climate change. In general, temperature and precipitation changes will lead to a northward spread of the occurrences of Anopheles vectors. Yet, for some Mediterranean areas, occurrence probabilities may decline. CONCLUSIONS: Potential malaria transmission stability is increased in areas where the climatic changes favor vector occurrences as well as significantly impact the vectorial capacity. As a result, vector stability shows the highest increases between historical and future periods for the southern and south-eastern European areas. Anopheles atroparvus, the dominant vector in large parts of Europe, might play an important role with respect to changes of the potential transmission stability. ELECTRONIC SUPPLEMENTARY MATERIAL: The online version of this article (10.1186/s13071-018-3278-6) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.
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spelling pubmed-63258712019-01-11 Distribution of Anopheles vectors and potential malaria transmission stability in Europe and the Mediterranean area under future climate change Hertig, Elke Parasit Vectors Research BACKGROUND: In the scope of climate change the possible recurrence and/or expansion of vector-borne diseases poses a major concern. The occurrence of vector competent Anopheles species as well as favorable climatic conditions may lead to the re-emergence of autochthonous malaria in Europe and the Mediterranean area. However, high-resolution assessments of possible changes of Anopheles vector distributions and of potential malaria transmission stability in the European-Mediterranean area under changing climatic conditions during the course of the 21st century are not available yet. METHODS: Boosted Regression Trees are applied to relate climate variables and land cover classes to vector occurrences. Changes in future vector distributions and potential malaria transmission stability due to climate change are assessed using state-of-the art regional climate model simulations. RESULTS: Distinct changes in the distributions of the dominant vectors of human malaria are to be expected under climate change. In general, temperature and precipitation changes will lead to a northward spread of the occurrences of Anopheles vectors. Yet, for some Mediterranean areas, occurrence probabilities may decline. CONCLUSIONS: Potential malaria transmission stability is increased in areas where the climatic changes favor vector occurrences as well as significantly impact the vectorial capacity. As a result, vector stability shows the highest increases between historical and future periods for the southern and south-eastern European areas. Anopheles atroparvus, the dominant vector in large parts of Europe, might play an important role with respect to changes of the potential transmission stability. ELECTRONIC SUPPLEMENTARY MATERIAL: The online version of this article (10.1186/s13071-018-3278-6) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users. BioMed Central 2019-01-08 /pmc/articles/PMC6325871/ /pubmed/30621785 http://dx.doi.org/10.1186/s13071-018-3278-6 Text en © The Author(s). 2019 Open AccessThis article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/), which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons license, and indicate if changes were made. The Creative Commons Public Domain Dedication waiver (http://creativecommons.org/publicdomain/zero/1.0/) applies to the data made available in this article, unless otherwise stated.
spellingShingle Research
Hertig, Elke
Distribution of Anopheles vectors and potential malaria transmission stability in Europe and the Mediterranean area under future climate change
title Distribution of Anopheles vectors and potential malaria transmission stability in Europe and the Mediterranean area under future climate change
title_full Distribution of Anopheles vectors and potential malaria transmission stability in Europe and the Mediterranean area under future climate change
title_fullStr Distribution of Anopheles vectors and potential malaria transmission stability in Europe and the Mediterranean area under future climate change
title_full_unstemmed Distribution of Anopheles vectors and potential malaria transmission stability in Europe and the Mediterranean area under future climate change
title_short Distribution of Anopheles vectors and potential malaria transmission stability in Europe and the Mediterranean area under future climate change
title_sort distribution of anopheles vectors and potential malaria transmission stability in europe and the mediterranean area under future climate change
topic Research
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6325871/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/30621785
http://dx.doi.org/10.1186/s13071-018-3278-6
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