Validation of a novel model for the early detection of hepatocellular carcinoma

BACKGROUND: The biomarkers alpha-fetoprotein (AFP) and protein induced by vitamin K absence/antagonist-II (PIVKA-II) may be useful for detecting early-stage hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). We evaluated the performance of AFP and PIVKA-II levels, alone and in combination with clinical factors, for the early detection of HCC. METHODS: In a case–control study, serum AFP and PIVKA-II were measured using the ARCHITECT immunoassay analyzer system in a cohort of 119 patients with HCC, 215 patients with non-malignant liver disease, and 34 healthy subjects. Five predictive models for detecting HCC were developed based on age, gender, AFP, and/or PIVKA-II levels; the best model was validated in an independent cohort of 416 patients with HCC and 412 control subjects with cirrhosis. RESULTS: In both cohorts, AFP and PIVKA-II concentrations were higher in patients with HCC compared to healthy controls and patients with non-malignant liver disease. The model that combined AFP and PIVKA-II, age, and gender had the highest AUC of 0.95 (0.95, 95% CI 0.93–0.98), with a sensitivity of 93% and a specificity of 84% in the development cohort, and an AUC of 0.87 (95% CI 0.85–0.90), sensitivity of 74%, and specificity of 85% in the validation cohort. When limiting the validation cohort to only early-stage HCC, the AUC was 0.85 (95% CI 0.81–0.88), sensitivity was 70%, and specificity was 86%. CONCLUSIONS: Compared to each biomarker alone, the combination of AFP and PIVKA-II with age and gender improved the accuracy of detecting HCC and differentiating HCC from non-malignant liver disease. ELECTRONIC SUPPLEMENTARY MATERIAL: The online version of this article (10.1186/s12014-018-9222-0) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.