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Exploring 2.5-Year Trajectories of Functional Decline in Older Adults by Applying a Growth Mixture Model and Frequency of Outings as a Predictor: A 2010–2013 JAGES Longitudinal Study
BACKGROUND: We explored the distinct trajectories of functional decline among older adults in Japan, and evaluated whether the frequency of outings, an important indicator of social activity, predicts the identified trajectories. METHODS: We analyzed data on 2,364 adults aged 65 years or older from...
Autores principales: | , , , , , , , |
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Formato: | Online Artículo Texto |
Lenguaje: | English |
Publicado: |
Japan Epidemiological Association
2019
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Materias: | |
Acceso en línea: | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6336721/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/29937470 http://dx.doi.org/10.2188/jea.JE20170230 |
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author | Saito, Junko Kondo, Naoki Saito, Masashige Takagi, Daisuke Tani, Yukako Haseda, Maho Tabuchi, Takahiro Kondo, Katsunori |
author_facet | Saito, Junko Kondo, Naoki Saito, Masashige Takagi, Daisuke Tani, Yukako Haseda, Maho Tabuchi, Takahiro Kondo, Katsunori |
author_sort | Saito, Junko |
collection | PubMed |
description | BACKGROUND: We explored the distinct trajectories of functional decline among older adults in Japan, and evaluated whether the frequency of outings, an important indicator of social activity, predicts the identified trajectories. METHODS: We analyzed data on 2,364 adults aged 65 years or older from the Japan Aichi Gerontological Evaluation Study. Participants were initially independent and later developed functional disability during a 31-month follow-up period. We used the level of long-term care needs certified in the public health insurance system as a proxy of functional ability and linked the fully tracked data of changes in the care levels to the baseline data. A low frequency of outings was defined as leaving one’s home less than once per week at baseline. We applied a growth mixture model to identify trajectories in functional decline by sex and then examined the association between the frequency of outings and the identified trajectories using multinomial logistic regression analysis. RESULTS: Three distinct trajectories were identified: “slowly declining” (64.3% of men and 79.7% of women), “persistently disabled” (4.5% and 3.7%, respectively), and “rapidly declining” (31.3% and 16.6%, respectively). Men with fewer outings had 2.14 times greater odds (95% confidence interval, 1.03–4.41) of being persistently disabled. The association between outing frequency and functional decline trajectory was less clear statistically among women. CONCLUSIONS: While the majority of older adults showed a slow functional decline, some showed persistent moderate disability. Providing more opportunities to go out or assistance in that regard may be important for preventing persistent disability, and such needs might be greater among men. |
format | Online Article Text |
id | pubmed-6336721 |
institution | National Center for Biotechnology Information |
language | English |
publishDate | 2019 |
publisher | Japan Epidemiological Association |
record_format | MEDLINE/PubMed |
spelling | pubmed-63367212019-02-05 Exploring 2.5-Year Trajectories of Functional Decline in Older Adults by Applying a Growth Mixture Model and Frequency of Outings as a Predictor: A 2010–2013 JAGES Longitudinal Study Saito, Junko Kondo, Naoki Saito, Masashige Takagi, Daisuke Tani, Yukako Haseda, Maho Tabuchi, Takahiro Kondo, Katsunori J Epidemiol Original Article BACKGROUND: We explored the distinct trajectories of functional decline among older adults in Japan, and evaluated whether the frequency of outings, an important indicator of social activity, predicts the identified trajectories. METHODS: We analyzed data on 2,364 adults aged 65 years or older from the Japan Aichi Gerontological Evaluation Study. Participants were initially independent and later developed functional disability during a 31-month follow-up period. We used the level of long-term care needs certified in the public health insurance system as a proxy of functional ability and linked the fully tracked data of changes in the care levels to the baseline data. A low frequency of outings was defined as leaving one’s home less than once per week at baseline. We applied a growth mixture model to identify trajectories in functional decline by sex and then examined the association between the frequency of outings and the identified trajectories using multinomial logistic regression analysis. RESULTS: Three distinct trajectories were identified: “slowly declining” (64.3% of men and 79.7% of women), “persistently disabled” (4.5% and 3.7%, respectively), and “rapidly declining” (31.3% and 16.6%, respectively). Men with fewer outings had 2.14 times greater odds (95% confidence interval, 1.03–4.41) of being persistently disabled. The association between outing frequency and functional decline trajectory was less clear statistically among women. CONCLUSIONS: While the majority of older adults showed a slow functional decline, some showed persistent moderate disability. Providing more opportunities to go out or assistance in that regard may be important for preventing persistent disability, and such needs might be greater among men. Japan Epidemiological Association 2019-02-05 /pmc/articles/PMC6336721/ /pubmed/29937470 http://dx.doi.org/10.2188/jea.JE20170230 Text en © 2018 Junko Saito et al. https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ This is an open access article distributed under the terms of Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited. |
spellingShingle | Original Article Saito, Junko Kondo, Naoki Saito, Masashige Takagi, Daisuke Tani, Yukako Haseda, Maho Tabuchi, Takahiro Kondo, Katsunori Exploring 2.5-Year Trajectories of Functional Decline in Older Adults by Applying a Growth Mixture Model and Frequency of Outings as a Predictor: A 2010–2013 JAGES Longitudinal Study |
title | Exploring 2.5-Year Trajectories of Functional Decline in Older Adults by Applying a Growth Mixture Model and Frequency of Outings as a Predictor: A 2010–2013 JAGES Longitudinal Study |
title_full | Exploring 2.5-Year Trajectories of Functional Decline in Older Adults by Applying a Growth Mixture Model and Frequency of Outings as a Predictor: A 2010–2013 JAGES Longitudinal Study |
title_fullStr | Exploring 2.5-Year Trajectories of Functional Decline in Older Adults by Applying a Growth Mixture Model and Frequency of Outings as a Predictor: A 2010–2013 JAGES Longitudinal Study |
title_full_unstemmed | Exploring 2.5-Year Trajectories of Functional Decline in Older Adults by Applying a Growth Mixture Model and Frequency of Outings as a Predictor: A 2010–2013 JAGES Longitudinal Study |
title_short | Exploring 2.5-Year Trajectories of Functional Decline in Older Adults by Applying a Growth Mixture Model and Frequency of Outings as a Predictor: A 2010–2013 JAGES Longitudinal Study |
title_sort | exploring 2.5-year trajectories of functional decline in older adults by applying a growth mixture model and frequency of outings as a predictor: a 2010–2013 jages longitudinal study |
topic | Original Article |
url | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6336721/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/29937470 http://dx.doi.org/10.2188/jea.JE20170230 |
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