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Exploring 2.5-Year Trajectories of Functional Decline in Older Adults by Applying a Growth Mixture Model and Frequency of Outings as a Predictor: A 2010–2013 JAGES Longitudinal Study

BACKGROUND: We explored the distinct trajectories of functional decline among older adults in Japan, and evaluated whether the frequency of outings, an important indicator of social activity, predicts the identified trajectories. METHODS: We analyzed data on 2,364 adults aged 65 years or older from...

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Autores principales: Saito, Junko, Kondo, Naoki, Saito, Masashige, Takagi, Daisuke, Tani, Yukako, Haseda, Maho, Tabuchi, Takahiro, Kondo, Katsunori
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: Japan Epidemiological Association 2019
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6336721/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/29937470
http://dx.doi.org/10.2188/jea.JE20170230
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author Saito, Junko
Kondo, Naoki
Saito, Masashige
Takagi, Daisuke
Tani, Yukako
Haseda, Maho
Tabuchi, Takahiro
Kondo, Katsunori
author_facet Saito, Junko
Kondo, Naoki
Saito, Masashige
Takagi, Daisuke
Tani, Yukako
Haseda, Maho
Tabuchi, Takahiro
Kondo, Katsunori
author_sort Saito, Junko
collection PubMed
description BACKGROUND: We explored the distinct trajectories of functional decline among older adults in Japan, and evaluated whether the frequency of outings, an important indicator of social activity, predicts the identified trajectories. METHODS: We analyzed data on 2,364 adults aged 65 years or older from the Japan Aichi Gerontological Evaluation Study. Participants were initially independent and later developed functional disability during a 31-month follow-up period. We used the level of long-term care needs certified in the public health insurance system as a proxy of functional ability and linked the fully tracked data of changes in the care levels to the baseline data. A low frequency of outings was defined as leaving one’s home less than once per week at baseline. We applied a growth mixture model to identify trajectories in functional decline by sex and then examined the association between the frequency of outings and the identified trajectories using multinomial logistic regression analysis. RESULTS: Three distinct trajectories were identified: “slowly declining” (64.3% of men and 79.7% of women), “persistently disabled” (4.5% and 3.7%, respectively), and “rapidly declining” (31.3% and 16.6%, respectively). Men with fewer outings had 2.14 times greater odds (95% confidence interval, 1.03–4.41) of being persistently disabled. The association between outing frequency and functional decline trajectory was less clear statistically among women. CONCLUSIONS: While the majority of older adults showed a slow functional decline, some showed persistent moderate disability. Providing more opportunities to go out or assistance in that regard may be important for preventing persistent disability, and such needs might be greater among men.
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spelling pubmed-63367212019-02-05 Exploring 2.5-Year Trajectories of Functional Decline in Older Adults by Applying a Growth Mixture Model and Frequency of Outings as a Predictor: A 2010–2013 JAGES Longitudinal Study Saito, Junko Kondo, Naoki Saito, Masashige Takagi, Daisuke Tani, Yukako Haseda, Maho Tabuchi, Takahiro Kondo, Katsunori J Epidemiol Original Article BACKGROUND: We explored the distinct trajectories of functional decline among older adults in Japan, and evaluated whether the frequency of outings, an important indicator of social activity, predicts the identified trajectories. METHODS: We analyzed data on 2,364 adults aged 65 years or older from the Japan Aichi Gerontological Evaluation Study. Participants were initially independent and later developed functional disability during a 31-month follow-up period. We used the level of long-term care needs certified in the public health insurance system as a proxy of functional ability and linked the fully tracked data of changes in the care levels to the baseline data. A low frequency of outings was defined as leaving one’s home less than once per week at baseline. We applied a growth mixture model to identify trajectories in functional decline by sex and then examined the association between the frequency of outings and the identified trajectories using multinomial logistic regression analysis. RESULTS: Three distinct trajectories were identified: “slowly declining” (64.3% of men and 79.7% of women), “persistently disabled” (4.5% and 3.7%, respectively), and “rapidly declining” (31.3% and 16.6%, respectively). Men with fewer outings had 2.14 times greater odds (95% confidence interval, 1.03–4.41) of being persistently disabled. The association between outing frequency and functional decline trajectory was less clear statistically among women. CONCLUSIONS: While the majority of older adults showed a slow functional decline, some showed persistent moderate disability. Providing more opportunities to go out or assistance in that regard may be important for preventing persistent disability, and such needs might be greater among men. Japan Epidemiological Association 2019-02-05 /pmc/articles/PMC6336721/ /pubmed/29937470 http://dx.doi.org/10.2188/jea.JE20170230 Text en © 2018 Junko Saito et al. https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ This is an open access article distributed under the terms of Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited.
spellingShingle Original Article
Saito, Junko
Kondo, Naoki
Saito, Masashige
Takagi, Daisuke
Tani, Yukako
Haseda, Maho
Tabuchi, Takahiro
Kondo, Katsunori
Exploring 2.5-Year Trajectories of Functional Decline in Older Adults by Applying a Growth Mixture Model and Frequency of Outings as a Predictor: A 2010–2013 JAGES Longitudinal Study
title Exploring 2.5-Year Trajectories of Functional Decline in Older Adults by Applying a Growth Mixture Model and Frequency of Outings as a Predictor: A 2010–2013 JAGES Longitudinal Study
title_full Exploring 2.5-Year Trajectories of Functional Decline in Older Adults by Applying a Growth Mixture Model and Frequency of Outings as a Predictor: A 2010–2013 JAGES Longitudinal Study
title_fullStr Exploring 2.5-Year Trajectories of Functional Decline in Older Adults by Applying a Growth Mixture Model and Frequency of Outings as a Predictor: A 2010–2013 JAGES Longitudinal Study
title_full_unstemmed Exploring 2.5-Year Trajectories of Functional Decline in Older Adults by Applying a Growth Mixture Model and Frequency of Outings as a Predictor: A 2010–2013 JAGES Longitudinal Study
title_short Exploring 2.5-Year Trajectories of Functional Decline in Older Adults by Applying a Growth Mixture Model and Frequency of Outings as a Predictor: A 2010–2013 JAGES Longitudinal Study
title_sort exploring 2.5-year trajectories of functional decline in older adults by applying a growth mixture model and frequency of outings as a predictor: a 2010–2013 jages longitudinal study
topic Original Article
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6336721/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/29937470
http://dx.doi.org/10.2188/jea.JE20170230
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