A nomogram for predicting bowel obstruction in preoperative colorectal cancer patients with clinical characteristics

BACKGROUND: Bowel obstruction (BO) is a complication that commonly affects patients with colorectal cancer (CRC). BO causes severe outcomes, and its treatment leads to a dilemma for many surgeons. Moreover, the factors correlated to BO in preoperative CRC patients remain unclear. The objectives of this study were to investigate the clinical characteristics of BO to identify risk predictors and to construct a BO prediction model with preoperative CRC patients. METHODS: A large-scale, retrospective cohort, population-based study analyzed the data of 11,814 patients obtained from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results and Medicare claims-linked databases (SEER-M database). Patients aged ≥ 66 years and primarily diagnosed with CRC from 1992 to 2009 were divided into BO and non-BO groups. Cox proportional hazards regression models were used to determine predictors, and then, a nomogram was constructed by those predictors. RESULTS: A total of 11,814 patients (5293 men and 6251 women) were identified. In multivariate analysis, 14 factors were found to be associated with BO including age, race, marital status, residence location, T category, M category, primary tumor site, histologic type, histologic grade, tumor size, history of alcoholism, chemotherapy, radiotherapy, abdominal pain, and anemia. A nomogram predicting the 90- and 180-day rates of BO was built for the preoperative CRC patients with a C-index of 0.795. CONCLUSIONS: This study identified 14 BO-related factors, and a statistical model was constructed to predict the onset of BO in preoperative CRC patients. The obtained data may guide decision-making for the intervention of patients at risk for BO. ELECTRONIC SUPPLEMENTARY MATERIAL: The online version of this article (10.1186/s12957-019-1562-3) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.