Prognostic value of numbers of metastatic lymph node in medullary thyroid carcinoma: A population-based study using the SEER 18 database

Lymph node (LN) metastases are widely considered as a vital assessment of disease progression, as well as an essential indicator for biochemical cure of medullary thyroid carcinoma (MTC). Prognostic effect of numbers of metastatic LN has not been fully studied and the optimal cut-point of LN numbers has not been established. This population-based study designed to investigate prognostic value of numbers of positive LN and determinate the prognostic factors. Data were generated from Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database between 1998 and 2013. X-tile program was applied and cut points for division of LN numbers as low-, medium- and high-risk were 0, 1 to 10, and ≥11. The relationship between numbers of metastatic LN, age, tumor size, extent of tumor, and radiotherapy on overall survival (OS) and disease-specific survival (DSS) were evaluated. A total of 1466 diagnosed primary MTC patients without metastases were eligible for analysis in current study. 945 (64%) patients were classified as no positive LNs, 327 (22%) as 1 to 10 positive LNs, 194 (14%) as ≥11 positive LNs. Patients with older age, tumor size, ≥11 positive LN were associated with unfavorable OS. Those dispensed with radiation had statistically better prognosis than the others. When stratified by age, there was a significant difference in patients ≥45 years within LN categories (log-rank P < .001). When stratified by tumor size, a significant correlation was noted between rising numbers of involved nodes and falling rates of OS in tumor measuring >2cm setting (2–4 cm setting, log-rank P = .003 and >4 cm setting, log-rank P = .014, separately). There was no statistical difference of the area under the curve (AUC) for OS and DSS prediction between LN group and N stage, suggesting the 2 LN systems had the same predictive power for OS and DSS. Numbers of metastatic LN showed prognostic power in survival analysis and remained an independent survival predictor which can be evaluated in MTC treatment decisions for optimum assessment.