Recruitment variation disrupts the stability of alternative life histories in an exploited salmon population

Males of many fish species exhibit alternative reproductive tactics, which can influence the maturation schedules, fishery productivity, and resilience to harvest of exploited populations. While alternative mating phenotypes can persist in stable equilibria through frequency‐dependent selection, shifts in tactic frequencies have been observed and can have substantial consequences for fisheries. Here, we examine the dynamics of precocious sneaker males called “jacks” in a population of sockeye salmon (Oncorhynchus nerka) from Frazer Lake, Alaska. Jacks, which are of little commercial value due to their small body sizes, have recently been observed at unusually high levels in this stock, degrading the value of regional fisheries. To inform future strategies for managing the prevalence of jacks, we used long‐term monitoring data to identify what regulates the frequencies of alternative male phenotypes in the population over time. Expression of the jack life history could not be explained by environmental factors expected to influence juvenile body condition and maturation probability. Instead, we found a strong positive association between the proportion of individuals maturing as jacks within a cohort and the prevalence of jacks among the males that sired that cohort. Moreover, due to differences in age‐at‐maturity between male phenotypes, and large interannual variability in recruitment strength, jacks from strong year‐classes often spawn among older males from the weaker recruitments of earlier cohorts. Through such “cohort mismatches,” which are amplified by size‐selective harvest on older males, jacks frequently achieve substantial representation in the breeding population, and likely high total fertilizations. The repeated occurrence of these cohort mismatches appears to disrupt the stabilizing influence of frequency‐dependent selection, allowing the prevalence of jacks to exceed what might be expected under equilibrium conditions. These results emphasize that the dynamics of alternative life histories can profoundly influence fishery performance and should be explicitly considered in the management of exploited populations.