A multidisciplinary approach to inform assisted migration of the restricted rainforest tree, Fontainea rostrata

Assisted migration can aid in the conservation of narrowly endemic species affected by habitat loss, fragmentation and climate change. Here, we employ a multidisciplinary approach by examining the population genetic structure of a threatened, dioecious rainforest tree of the subtropical notophyll vine forests of eastern Australia, Fontainea rostrata, and its potential requirements for population enhancement and translocation to withstand the effects of anthropogenic fragmentation and climate change. We used microsatellite markers to gain an understanding of the way genetic diversity is partitioned within and among the nine extant populations of F. rostrata identified in this study. We combined the results with species distribution modelling to identify populations vulnerable to possible future range shifts based on climate change projections. We found regional differences between the species’ main distribution in the south and a disjunct northern population cluster (F(RT) = 0.074, F(SR) = 0.088, F(ST) = 0.155), in mean allelic richness (A(R) = 2.77 vs 2.33, p < 0.05), expected heterozygosity (H(E) = 0.376 vs 0.328), and inbreeding (F = 0.116 vs 0.219). Species distribution models predicted that while southern populations of F. rostrata are likely to persist for the next 50 years under the RCP6.0 climate change scenario, with potential for a small-scale expansion to the south-east, the more highly inbred and less genetically diverse northern populations will come under increasing pressure to expand southwards as habitat suitability declines. Given the species’ genetic structure and with the aim to enhance genetic diversity and maximise the likelihood of reproductive success, we recommend that plant reintroductions to supplement existing populations should be prioritised over translocation of the species to new sites. However, future conservation efforts should be directed at translocation to establish new sites to increase population connectivity, focussing particularly on habitat areas identified as persisting under conditions of climate change.