新型非实性肺小结节恶性概率预测模型的构建与验证

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVE: Mathematical predictive model is an effective method for preliminarily identifying the malignant pulmonary nodules. As the epidemiological trend of lung cancer changes, the detection rate of ground-glass-opacity (GGO) like early stage lung cancer is increasing rapidly, timely and proper clinical management can effectively improve the patients' prognosis. Our study aims to establish a novel predictive model of malignancy for non-solid pulmonary nodules, which would provide an objective evidence for invasive procedure and avoid unnecessary operation and the consequences. METHODS: We retrospectively analyzed the basic demographics, serum tumor markers and imaging features of 362 cases of non-solid pulmonary nodule from January 2013 to April 2018. All nodules received biopsy or surgical resection, and got pathological diagnosis. Cases were randomly divided into two groups. The modeling group was used for univariate analysis and logistic regression to determine independent risk factors and establish the predictive model. Data of the validation group was used to validate the predictive value and make a comparison with other models. RESULTS: Of the 362 cases with non-solid pulmonary nodule, 313 (86.5%) cases were diagnosed as AAH/AIS, MIA or invasive adenocarcinoma, 49 cases were diagnosed as benign lesions. Age, serum tumor markers CEA and Cyfra21-1, consolidation tumor ratio value, lobulation and calcification were identified as independent risk factors. The AUC value of the ROC curve was 0.894, the predictive sensitivity and specificity were 87.6%, 69.7%, the positive and negative predictive value were 94.8%, 46.9%. The validated predictive value is significantly better than that of the VA, Brock and GMUFH models. CONCLUSION: Proved with high predictive sensitivity and positive predictive value, this novel model could help enable preliminarily screening of "high-risk" non-solid pulmonary nodules before biopsy or surgical excision, and minimize unnecessary invasive procedure. This model achieved preferable predictive value, might have great potential for clinical application.