Modelling the impact of chest X-ray and alternative triage approaches prior to seeking a tuberculosis diagnosis

BACKGROUND: Tuberculosis is a major challenge to health in the developing world. Triage prior to diagnostic testing could potentially reduce the volume of tests and costs associated with using the more accurate, but costly, Xpert MTB/RIF assay. An effective methodology to predict the impact of introducing triage prior to tuberculosis diagnostic testing could be useful in helping to guide policy. METHODS: The development and use of operational modelling to project the impact on case detection and health system costs of alternative triage approaches for tuberculosis, with or without X-ray, based on data from Porto Alegre City, Brazil. RESULTS: Most of the triage approaches modelled without X-ray were predicted to provide no significant benefit. One approach based on an artificial neural network applied to patient and symptom characteristics was projected to increase case detection (82% vs. 75%) compared to microscopy, and reduce costs compared to Xpert without triage. In addition, use of X-ray before diagnostic testing for HIV-negative patients could maintain diagnostic yield of using Xpert without triage, and reduce costs. CONCLUSION: A model for the impact assessment of alternative triage approaches has been tested. The results from using the approach demonstrate its usefulness in informing policy in a typical high burden setting for tuberculosis. ELECTRONIC SUPPLEMENTARY MATERIAL: The online version of this article (10.1186/s12879-019-3684-1) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.