Trends and predictors of non‐communicable disease multimorbidity among adults living with HIV and receiving antiretroviral therapy in Brazil

INTRODUCTION: People living with HIV (PLHIV) on antiretroviral therapy (ART) experience high rates of non‐communicable diseases (NCDs). These co‐morbidities often accumulate and older adults may suffer from multimorbidity. Multimorbidity has been associated with loss of quality of life, polypharmacy, and increased risk of frailty and mortality. Little is known of the trends or predictors NCD multimorbidity in PLHIV in low‐ and middle‐income countries. METHODS: We examined NCD multimorbidity in adult PLHIV initiating ART between 2003 and 2014 using a multi‐site, observational cohort in Brazil. NCDs included cardiovascular artery disease, hyperlipidemia (HLD), diabetes, chronic kidney disease, cirrhosis, osteoporosis, osteonecrosis, venous thromboembolism and non‐AIDS‐defining cancers. Multimorbidity was defined as the incident accumulation of two or more unique NCDs. We used Poisson regression to examine trends and Cox proportional hazard models to examine predictors of multimorbidity. RESULTS: Of the 6206 adults, 332 (5%) developed multimorbidity during the study period. Parallel to the ageing of the cohort, the prevalence of multimorbidity rose from 3% to 11% during the study period. Older age, female sex (adjusted hazard ratio (aHR) = 1.30 (95% confidence interval (CI) 1.03 to 1.65)) and low CD4 nadir (<100 vs. ≥200 cells/mm(3) aHR = 1.52 (95% CI: 1.15 to 2.01)) at cohort entry were significantly associated with increased risk of multimorbidity. Among patients with incident multimorbidity, the most common NCDs were HLD and diabetes; however, osteoporosis was also frequent in women (16 vs. 35% of men and women with multimorbidity respectively). CONCLUSIONS: Among adult PLHIV in Brazil, NCD multimorbidity increased from 2003 to 2014. Females and adults with low CD4 nadir were at increased risk in adjusted analyses. Further studies examining prevention, screening and management of NCDs in PLHIV in low‐ and middle‐income countries are needed.