Predicting in-hospital mortality among non-trauma patients based on vital sign changes between prehospital and in-hospital: An observational cohort study

OBJECTIVE: To prevent misjudgment of the severity of patients in the emergency department who initially seem non-severe but are in a critical state, methods that differ from the conventional viewpoint are needed. We aimed to determine whether vital sign changes between prehospital and in-hospital could predict in-hospital mortality among non-trauma patients. METHODS: This observational cohort study was conducted in two tertiary care hospitals. Patients were included if they were transported by ambulance for non-trauma-related conditions but were excluded if they experienced prehospital cardiopulmonary arrest, were pregnant, were aged <15 years, had undergone inter-hospital transfer, or had complete missing data regarding prehospital or in-hospital vital signs. The main outcome was in-hospital mortality, and the study variables were changes in vital signs, pulse pressure, and/or shock index between the prehospital and in-hospital assessments. Logistic regression analyses were performed to obtain adjusted odds ratios for each variable. Receiver operating characteristic curve analyses were performed to identify cut-off values that produced a positive likelihood ratio of ≥2. RESULTS: Among the 2,586 eligible patients, 170 died in the two hospitals. Significantly elevated risks of in-hospital mortality were associated with changes in the Glasgow Coma Scale (cut-off ≤–3), respiratory rate (no clinically significant cut-off), systolic blood pressure (cut-off ≥47 mmHg), pulse pressure (cut-off ≥55 mmHg), and shock index (cut-off ≥0.3). CONCLUSIONS: Non-trauma patients who exhibit changes in some vital signs between prehospital and in-hospital have an increased risk of in-hospital mortality. Therefore, it is useful to incorporate these changes in vital signs to improve triaging and predict the occurrence of in-hospital mortality.