Incidence of type 2 diabetes mellitus and prediabetes in Kerala, India: results from a 10-year prospective cohort

BACKGROUND: Kerala, the southern state of India, has experienced sudden rise in the prevalence estimates of diabetes. A cohort study on the incidence of type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) in Kerala state thus aptly bridges the lacuna of incidence estimate of T2DM from a population at risk. METHODS: A 10-year prospective cohort study was carried out in two urban wards of central Kerala. The individuals who participated in the baseline survey in 2007 were again invited for a follow-up study in 2017. The data was analyzed using IBM SPSS Statistics for windows (version 21.0). Logistic regression analysis was used to estimate odds ratios and 95% confidence intervals. Findings are based on the 10-year follow-up data from 869 participants from the cohort. RESULTS: The overall follow-up and response rate of the study was 68.9 and 86.9% respectively. During the follow-up period, 190 people (21.9%) developed T2DM. The incidence rate of T2DM and impaired fasting glucose (IFG) were 24.5 per 1000 person years and 45.01 per 1000 person years respectively. Nearly 60% of participants with baseline IFG were converted to T2DM group in the follow-up period. Age > 45 years, family history of T2DM, BMI ≥ 25 kg/m(2) and presence of central obesity emerged as important risk factors for incident T2DM. CONCLUSION: High incidence of prediabetes over diabetes observed in this study shows an epidemic trend of T2DM in Kerala, India. It requires an immediate public health action.