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Population projections for U.S. counties by age, sex, and race controlled to shared socioeconomic pathway

Small area and subnational population projections are important for understanding long-term demographic changes. I provide county-level population projections by age, sex, and race in five-year intervals for the period 2020–2100 for all U.S. counties. Using historic U.S. census data in temporally re...

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Autor principal: Hauer, Mathew E.
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: Nature Publishing Group 2019
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6362894/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/30720801
http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/sdata.2019.5
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author Hauer, Mathew E.
author_facet Hauer, Mathew E.
author_sort Hauer, Mathew E.
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description Small area and subnational population projections are important for understanding long-term demographic changes. I provide county-level population projections by age, sex, and race in five-year intervals for the period 2020–2100 for all U.S. counties. Using historic U.S. census data in temporally rectified county boundaries and race groups for the period 1990–2015, I calculate cohort-change ratios (CCRs) and cohort-change differences (CCDs) for eighteen five-year age groups (0–85+ ), two sex groups (Male and Female), and four race groups (White NH, Black NH, Other NH, Hispanic) for all U.S counties. I then project these CCRs/CCDs using ARIMA models as inputs into Leslie matrix population projection models and control the projections to the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways. I validate the methods using ex-post facto evaluations using data from 1969–2000 to project 2000–2015. My results are reasonably accurate for this period. These data have numerous potential uses and can serve as inputs for addressing questions involving sub-national demographic change in the United States.
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spelling pubmed-63628942019-02-06 Population projections for U.S. counties by age, sex, and race controlled to shared socioeconomic pathway Hauer, Mathew E. Sci Data Data Descriptor Small area and subnational population projections are important for understanding long-term demographic changes. I provide county-level population projections by age, sex, and race in five-year intervals for the period 2020–2100 for all U.S. counties. Using historic U.S. census data in temporally rectified county boundaries and race groups for the period 1990–2015, I calculate cohort-change ratios (CCRs) and cohort-change differences (CCDs) for eighteen five-year age groups (0–85+ ), two sex groups (Male and Female), and four race groups (White NH, Black NH, Other NH, Hispanic) for all U.S counties. I then project these CCRs/CCDs using ARIMA models as inputs into Leslie matrix population projection models and control the projections to the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways. I validate the methods using ex-post facto evaluations using data from 1969–2000 to project 2000–2015. My results are reasonably accurate for this period. These data have numerous potential uses and can serve as inputs for addressing questions involving sub-national demographic change in the United States. Nature Publishing Group 2019-02-05 /pmc/articles/PMC6362894/ /pubmed/30720801 http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/sdata.2019.5 Text en Copyright © 2019, The Author(s) http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ Open Access This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons license, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article’s Creative Commons license, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article’s Creative Commons license and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this license, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ The Creative Commons Public Domain Dedication waiver http://creativecommons.org/publicdomain/zero/1.0/ applies to the metadata files made available in this article.
spellingShingle Data Descriptor
Hauer, Mathew E.
Population projections for U.S. counties by age, sex, and race controlled to shared socioeconomic pathway
title Population projections for U.S. counties by age, sex, and race controlled to shared socioeconomic pathway
title_full Population projections for U.S. counties by age, sex, and race controlled to shared socioeconomic pathway
title_fullStr Population projections for U.S. counties by age, sex, and race controlled to shared socioeconomic pathway
title_full_unstemmed Population projections for U.S. counties by age, sex, and race controlled to shared socioeconomic pathway
title_short Population projections for U.S. counties by age, sex, and race controlled to shared socioeconomic pathway
title_sort population projections for u.s. counties by age, sex, and race controlled to shared socioeconomic pathway
topic Data Descriptor
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6362894/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/30720801
http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/sdata.2019.5
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