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Rapidly assessing the risks of infectious diseases to wildlife species

Predicting the likelihood of rare events is increasingly demanded by risk managers. A key challenge is dealing with different types of uncertainty, including epistemic uncertainties (lack of knowledge), stochasticity (inherent randomness) and natural variation. One potentially catastrophic event whi...

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Autores principales: Beauvais, Wendy, Zuther, Steffen, Villeneuve, Chantal, Kock, Richard, Guitian, Javier
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: The Royal Society 2019
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6366200/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/30800356
http://dx.doi.org/10.1098/rsos.181043
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author Beauvais, Wendy
Zuther, Steffen
Villeneuve, Chantal
Kock, Richard
Guitian, Javier
author_facet Beauvais, Wendy
Zuther, Steffen
Villeneuve, Chantal
Kock, Richard
Guitian, Javier
author_sort Beauvais, Wendy
collection PubMed
description Predicting the likelihood of rare events is increasingly demanded by risk managers. A key challenge is dealing with different types of uncertainty, including epistemic uncertainties (lack of knowledge), stochasticity (inherent randomness) and natural variation. One potentially catastrophic event which is impacted by high levels of all three of these uncertainty types is the transmission of livestock pathogens to wildlife, particularly for endangered species. There is often a lack of basic information, e.g. about a given pathogen's presence in local livestock populations or the susceptibility of a given wildlife species to infection by the pathogen. We adapted the OIE (World Organisation for Animal Health) risk assessment framework to rapidly assess and prioritize the risks of livestock pathogens for wildlife, taking account of epistemic uncertainties, stochasticity, seasonal movement of animals and interaction between different species at different spatial and temporal scales. We demonstrate the approach using the endangered saiga antelope (Saiga tatarica tatarica) as a case study. We conclude that, in general, transmission events are likely to be rare and limited to small geographical areas; however, their impact could be high. Brucella spp. and foot-and-mouth disease virus are among those most likely to be transmitted from livestock to the Betpak-Dala saiga population.
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spelling pubmed-63662002019-02-22 Rapidly assessing the risks of infectious diseases to wildlife species Beauvais, Wendy Zuther, Steffen Villeneuve, Chantal Kock, Richard Guitian, Javier R Soc Open Sci Biology (Whole Organism) Predicting the likelihood of rare events is increasingly demanded by risk managers. A key challenge is dealing with different types of uncertainty, including epistemic uncertainties (lack of knowledge), stochasticity (inherent randomness) and natural variation. One potentially catastrophic event which is impacted by high levels of all three of these uncertainty types is the transmission of livestock pathogens to wildlife, particularly for endangered species. There is often a lack of basic information, e.g. about a given pathogen's presence in local livestock populations or the susceptibility of a given wildlife species to infection by the pathogen. We adapted the OIE (World Organisation for Animal Health) risk assessment framework to rapidly assess and prioritize the risks of livestock pathogens for wildlife, taking account of epistemic uncertainties, stochasticity, seasonal movement of animals and interaction between different species at different spatial and temporal scales. We demonstrate the approach using the endangered saiga antelope (Saiga tatarica tatarica) as a case study. We conclude that, in general, transmission events are likely to be rare and limited to small geographical areas; however, their impact could be high. Brucella spp. and foot-and-mouth disease virus are among those most likely to be transmitted from livestock to the Betpak-Dala saiga population. The Royal Society 2019-01-16 /pmc/articles/PMC6366200/ /pubmed/30800356 http://dx.doi.org/10.1098/rsos.181043 Text en © 2019 The Authors. http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ Published by the Royal Society under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/, which permits unrestricted use, provided the original author and source are credited.
spellingShingle Biology (Whole Organism)
Beauvais, Wendy
Zuther, Steffen
Villeneuve, Chantal
Kock, Richard
Guitian, Javier
Rapidly assessing the risks of infectious diseases to wildlife species
title Rapidly assessing the risks of infectious diseases to wildlife species
title_full Rapidly assessing the risks of infectious diseases to wildlife species
title_fullStr Rapidly assessing the risks of infectious diseases to wildlife species
title_full_unstemmed Rapidly assessing the risks of infectious diseases to wildlife species
title_short Rapidly assessing the risks of infectious diseases to wildlife species
title_sort rapidly assessing the risks of infectious diseases to wildlife species
topic Biology (Whole Organism)
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6366200/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/30800356
http://dx.doi.org/10.1098/rsos.181043
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