Risk prediction for breast Cancer in Han Chinese women based on a cause-specific Hazard model

BACKGROUND: Considering the lack of efficient breast cancer prediction models suitable for general population screening in China. We aimed to develop a risk prediction model to identify high-risk populations, to help with primary prevention of breast cancer among Han Chinese women. METHODS: A cause-specific competing risk model was used to develop the Han Chinese Breast Cancer Prediction model. Data from the Shandong Case-Control Study (328 cases and 656 controls) and Taixing Prospective Cohort Study (13,176 participants) were used to develop and validate the model. The expected/observed (E/O) ratio and C-statistic were calculated to evaluate calibration and discriminative accuracy of the model, respectively. RESULTS: Compared with the reference level, the relative risks (RRs) for highest level of number of abortions, age at first live birth, history of benign breast disease, body mass index (BMI), family history of breast cancer, and life satisfaction scores were 6.3, 3.6, 4.3, 1.9, 3.3, 2.4, respectively. The model showed good calibration and discriminatory accuracy with an E/O ratio of 1.03 and C-statistic of 0.64. CONCLUSIONS: We developed a risk prediction model including fertility status and relevant disease history, as well as other modifiable risk factors. The model demonstrated good calibration and discrimination ability. ELECTRONIC SUPPLEMENTARY MATERIAL: The online version of this article (10.1186/s12885-019-5321-1) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.