Determinants of Developing Stroke Among Low-Income, Rural Residents: A 27-Year Population-Based, Prospective Cohort Study in Northern China

Although strokes are the leading cause of death and disability in many countries, China still lacks long-term monitoring data on stroke incidence and risk factors. This study explored stroke risk factors in a low-income, rural population in China. The study population was derived from the Tianjin Brain Study, a population-based stroke monitoring study that began in 1985. This study documented the demographic characteristics, past medical histories, and personal lifestyles of the study participants. In addition, physical examinations, including measurements of blood pressure (BP), height, and weight, were performed. Hazard ratios (HRs) were estimated for the risk factors for all subtypes of stroke using multivariate Cox regression analyses. During the study with mean following-up time of 23.16 years, 3906 individuals were recruited at baseline, and during 27 years of follow-up, 638 strokes were documented. The multivariate Cox regression analyses revealed a positive correlation between age and stroke incidence. Limited education was associated with a 1.9-fold increase in stroke risk (lowest vs. highest education level). Stroke risk was higher among former smokers than among current smokers (HR, 1.8 vs. 1.6; both, P < 0.05). Moreover, stroke risk was significantly associated with sex (HR, 1.8), former alcohol drinking (HR, 2.7), baseline hypertension (HR, 3.1), and overweight (HR, 1.3). In conclusion, this study identified uncontrollable (sex and age) and controllable (education, smoking, alcohol drinking, hypertension, and overweight) risk factors for stroke in a low-income, rural population in China. Therefore, it is critical to control BP and weight effectively, advocate cessation of smoking/alcohol drinking, and enhance the education level in this population to prevent increase in the burden of stroke in China.