Five-year lung cancer mortality risk analysis and topography in Xuan Wei: a spatiotemporal correlation analysis

BACKGROUND: In Xuan Wei, China, the lung cancer mortality rate is rising significantly more than that of the nation overall. However, it remains unclear 1) if improved diagnosis can just partially explain this observation and how other local risk factors may be correlated with the lung cancer mortality rate and 2) how the lung cancer mortality rates differ within Xuan Wei and how these spatiotemporal patterns are linked with local risk factors. To increase etiological knowledge, this study evaluated the spatial and temporal distributions of the health effects (the lung cancer mortality rates) from 2011 to 2015. METHODS: Four steps of spatial analysis were applied, as follows: 1) hotspot analysis to determine the geographical patterns of lung cancer mortality, 2) spatially-weighted sum to identify areas with higher health risks, 3) bivariate statistical analysis to assess the overall correlation between coal mines and lung cancer mortality, and 4) geographically-weighted regression to test for correlations among different towns within Xuan Wei. RESULTS: Women had higher lung cancer mortality rates than those in men, with an increasing trend in both sexes over time. The incidence rates in Laibin Town were the highest in Xuan Wei every year. Over the 5-year study period, the lung cancer mortality was increasingly concentrated in Laibin, Shuanglong, and Longchang, where the smoky coal mines are most concentrated. The population-level health risks from the coal mine in Xuan Wei were mapped and divided into five types of risk areas (Type I – Type IV). Correlation analysis revealed that there was no significant correlation between lung cancer mortality as a whole and coal mine distribution during the 5-year study period. However, the geographically-weighted regression revealed a stronger correlation in medium (Type III) and second-lowest (Type IV) health risks. CONCLUSIONS: Xuan Wei lung cancer mortality has increased continuously since the third national retrospective surveys on the causes of death by the Ministry of Health of the People’s Republic of China (2004–2005), especially for local women and residents over 35 years of age. Geographically, lung cancer in Xuan Wei showed unique spatiotemporal clustering. The local lung cancer mortality was significantly correlated with the smoky coal mine geographically. Some specific towns (Laibin, Shuanglong, and Longchang) within Xuan Wei manifested high correlations between lung cancer mortality and coal mines. The effects of coal mines on lung cancer mortality rates also spread geographically outward from these areas. Public health concern regarding lung cancer in Xuan Wei should prioritize higher-risk towns surrounded by smoking coal mines. Intervention strategies for particular toxic coal types require further studies on their chemical characteristics and mechanisms of carcinogenesis. Additional studies are also warranted to systematically examine the local environmental health risks related to coal industries and combustion air pollution and eventually to conduct early screening of lung cancer for local people who are more exposed to smoky coal in high-risk areas.