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Contemporary climatic analogs for 540 North American urban areas in the late 21st century
A major challenge in articulating human dimensions of climate change lies in translating global climate forecasts into impact assessments that are intuitive to the public. Climate-analog mapping involves matching the expected future climate at a location (e.g., a person’s city of residence) with cur...
Autores principales: | , |
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Formato: | Online Artículo Texto |
Lenguaje: | English |
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Nature Publishing Group UK
2019
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Materias: | |
Acceso en línea: | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6372656/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/30755612 http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41467-019-08540-3 |
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author | Fitzpatrick, Matthew C. Dunn, Robert R. |
author_facet | Fitzpatrick, Matthew C. Dunn, Robert R. |
author_sort | Fitzpatrick, Matthew C. |
collection | PubMed |
description | A major challenge in articulating human dimensions of climate change lies in translating global climate forecasts into impact assessments that are intuitive to the public. Climate-analog mapping involves matching the expected future climate at a location (e.g., a person’s city of residence) with current climate of another, potentially familiar, location - thereby providing a more relatable, place-based assessment of climate change. For 540 North American urban areas, we used climate-analog mapping to identify the location that has a contemporary climate most similar to each urban area’s expected 2080’s climate. We show that climate of most urban areas will shift considerably and become either more akin to contemporary climates hundreds of kilometers away and mainly to the south or will have no modern equivalent. Combined with an interactive web application, we provide an intuitive means of raising public awareness of the implications of climate change for 250 million urban residents. |
format | Online Article Text |
id | pubmed-6372656 |
institution | National Center for Biotechnology Information |
language | English |
publishDate | 2019 |
publisher | Nature Publishing Group UK |
record_format | MEDLINE/PubMed |
spelling | pubmed-63726562019-02-14 Contemporary climatic analogs for 540 North American urban areas in the late 21st century Fitzpatrick, Matthew C. Dunn, Robert R. Nat Commun Article A major challenge in articulating human dimensions of climate change lies in translating global climate forecasts into impact assessments that are intuitive to the public. Climate-analog mapping involves matching the expected future climate at a location (e.g., a person’s city of residence) with current climate of another, potentially familiar, location - thereby providing a more relatable, place-based assessment of climate change. For 540 North American urban areas, we used climate-analog mapping to identify the location that has a contemporary climate most similar to each urban area’s expected 2080’s climate. We show that climate of most urban areas will shift considerably and become either more akin to contemporary climates hundreds of kilometers away and mainly to the south or will have no modern equivalent. Combined with an interactive web application, we provide an intuitive means of raising public awareness of the implications of climate change for 250 million urban residents. Nature Publishing Group UK 2019-02-12 /pmc/articles/PMC6372656/ /pubmed/30755612 http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41467-019-08540-3 Text en © The Author(s) 2019 Open Access This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons license, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article’s Creative Commons license, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article’s Creative Commons license and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this license, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/. |
spellingShingle | Article Fitzpatrick, Matthew C. Dunn, Robert R. Contemporary climatic analogs for 540 North American urban areas in the late 21st century |
title | Contemporary climatic analogs for 540 North American urban areas in the late 21st century |
title_full | Contemporary climatic analogs for 540 North American urban areas in the late 21st century |
title_fullStr | Contemporary climatic analogs for 540 North American urban areas in the late 21st century |
title_full_unstemmed | Contemporary climatic analogs for 540 North American urban areas in the late 21st century |
title_short | Contemporary climatic analogs for 540 North American urban areas in the late 21st century |
title_sort | contemporary climatic analogs for 540 north american urban areas in the late 21st century |
topic | Article |
url | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6372656/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/30755612 http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41467-019-08540-3 |
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