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Feasibility of achieving the 2025 WHO global tuberculosis targets in South Africa, China, and India: a combined analysis of 11 mathematical models

BACKGROUND: The post-2015 End TB Strategy proposes targets of 50% reduction in tuberculosis incidence and 75% reduction in mortality from tuberculosis by 2025. We aimed to assess whether these targets are feasible in three high-burden countries with contrasting epidemiology and previous programmatic...

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Autores principales: Houben, Rein M G J, Menzies, Nicolas A, Sumner, Tom, Huynh, Grace H, Arinaminpathy, Nimalan, Goldhaber-Fiebert, Jeremy D, Lin, Hsien-Ho, Wu, Chieh-Yin, Mandal, Sandip, Pandey, Surabhi, Suen, Sze-chuan, Bendavid, Eran, Azman, Andrew S, Dowdy, David W, Bacaër, Nicolas, Rhines, Allison S, Feldman, Marcus W, Handel, Andreas, Whalen, Christopher C, Chang, Stewart T, Wagner, Bradley G, Eckhoff, Philip A, Trauer, James M, Denholm, Justin T, McBryde, Emma S, Cohen, Ted, Salomon, Joshua A, Pretorius, Carel, Lalli, Marek, Eaton, Jeffrey W, Boccia, Delia, Hosseini, Mehran, Gomez, Gabriela B, Sahu, Suvanand, Daniels, Colleen, Ditiu, Lucica, Chin, Daniel P, Wang, Lixia, Chadha, Vineet K, Rade, Kiran, Dewan, Puneet, Hippner, Piotr, Charalambous, Salome, Grant, Alison D, Churchyard, Gavin, Pillay, Yogan, Mametja, L David, Kimerling, Michael E, Vassall, Anna, White, Richard G
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: Elsevier Ltd 2016
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6375908/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/27720688
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/S2214-109X(16)30199-1
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author Houben, Rein M G J
Menzies, Nicolas A
Sumner, Tom
Huynh, Grace H
Arinaminpathy, Nimalan
Goldhaber-Fiebert, Jeremy D
Lin, Hsien-Ho
Wu, Chieh-Yin
Mandal, Sandip
Pandey, Surabhi
Suen, Sze-chuan
Bendavid, Eran
Azman, Andrew S
Dowdy, David W
Bacaër, Nicolas
Rhines, Allison S
Feldman, Marcus W
Handel, Andreas
Whalen, Christopher C
Chang, Stewart T
Wagner, Bradley G
Eckhoff, Philip A
Trauer, James M
Denholm, Justin T
McBryde, Emma S
Cohen, Ted
Salomon, Joshua A
Pretorius, Carel
Lalli, Marek
Eaton, Jeffrey W
Boccia, Delia
Hosseini, Mehran
Gomez, Gabriela B
Sahu, Suvanand
Daniels, Colleen
Ditiu, Lucica
Chin, Daniel P
Wang, Lixia
Chadha, Vineet K
Rade, Kiran
Dewan, Puneet
Hippner, Piotr
Charalambous, Salome
Grant, Alison D
Churchyard, Gavin
Pillay, Yogan
Mametja, L David
Kimerling, Michael E
Vassall, Anna
White, Richard G
author_facet Houben, Rein M G J
Menzies, Nicolas A
Sumner, Tom
Huynh, Grace H
Arinaminpathy, Nimalan
Goldhaber-Fiebert, Jeremy D
Lin, Hsien-Ho
Wu, Chieh-Yin
Mandal, Sandip
Pandey, Surabhi
Suen, Sze-chuan
Bendavid, Eran
Azman, Andrew S
Dowdy, David W
Bacaër, Nicolas
Rhines, Allison S
Feldman, Marcus W
Handel, Andreas
Whalen, Christopher C
Chang, Stewart T
Wagner, Bradley G
Eckhoff, Philip A
Trauer, James M
Denholm, Justin T
McBryde, Emma S
Cohen, Ted
Salomon, Joshua A
Pretorius, Carel
Lalli, Marek
Eaton, Jeffrey W
Boccia, Delia
Hosseini, Mehran
Gomez, Gabriela B
Sahu, Suvanand
Daniels, Colleen
Ditiu, Lucica
Chin, Daniel P
Wang, Lixia
Chadha, Vineet K
Rade, Kiran
Dewan, Puneet
Hippner, Piotr
Charalambous, Salome
Grant, Alison D
Churchyard, Gavin
Pillay, Yogan
Mametja, L David
Kimerling, Michael E
Vassall, Anna
White, Richard G
author_sort Houben, Rein M G J
collection PubMed
description BACKGROUND: The post-2015 End TB Strategy proposes targets of 50% reduction in tuberculosis incidence and 75% reduction in mortality from tuberculosis by 2025. We aimed to assess whether these targets are feasible in three high-burden countries with contrasting epidemiology and previous programmatic achievements. METHODS: 11 independently developed mathematical models of tuberculosis transmission projected the epidemiological impact of currently available tuberculosis interventions for prevention, diagnosis, and treatment in China, India, and South Africa. Models were calibrated with data on tuberculosis incidence and mortality in 2012. Representatives from national tuberculosis programmes and the advocacy community provided distinct country-specific intervention scenarios, which included screening for symptoms, active case finding, and preventive therapy. FINDINGS: Aggressive scale-up of any single intervention scenario could not achieve the post-2015 End TB Strategy targets in any country. However, the models projected that, in the South Africa national tuberculosis programme scenario, a combination of continuous isoniazid preventive therapy for individuals on antiretroviral therapy, expanded facility-based screening for symptoms of tuberculosis at health centres, and improved tuberculosis care could achieve a 55% reduction in incidence (range 31–62%) and a 72% reduction in mortality (range 64–82%) compared with 2015 levels. For India, and particularly for China, full scale-up of all interventions in tuberculosis-programme performance fell short of the 2025 targets, despite preventing a cumulative 3·4 million cases. The advocacy scenarios illustrated the high impact of detecting and treating latent tuberculosis. INTERPRETATION: Major reductions in tuberculosis burden seem possible with current interventions. However, additional interventions, adapted to country-specific tuberculosis epidemiology and health systems, are needed to reach the post-2015 End TB Strategy targets at country level. FUNDING: Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation
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spelling pubmed-63759082019-02-26 Feasibility of achieving the 2025 WHO global tuberculosis targets in South Africa, China, and India: a combined analysis of 11 mathematical models Houben, Rein M G J Menzies, Nicolas A Sumner, Tom Huynh, Grace H Arinaminpathy, Nimalan Goldhaber-Fiebert, Jeremy D Lin, Hsien-Ho Wu, Chieh-Yin Mandal, Sandip Pandey, Surabhi Suen, Sze-chuan Bendavid, Eran Azman, Andrew S Dowdy, David W Bacaër, Nicolas Rhines, Allison S Feldman, Marcus W Handel, Andreas Whalen, Christopher C Chang, Stewart T Wagner, Bradley G Eckhoff, Philip A Trauer, James M Denholm, Justin T McBryde, Emma S Cohen, Ted Salomon, Joshua A Pretorius, Carel Lalli, Marek Eaton, Jeffrey W Boccia, Delia Hosseini, Mehran Gomez, Gabriela B Sahu, Suvanand Daniels, Colleen Ditiu, Lucica Chin, Daniel P Wang, Lixia Chadha, Vineet K Rade, Kiran Dewan, Puneet Hippner, Piotr Charalambous, Salome Grant, Alison D Churchyard, Gavin Pillay, Yogan Mametja, L David Kimerling, Michael E Vassall, Anna White, Richard G Lancet Glob Health Article BACKGROUND: The post-2015 End TB Strategy proposes targets of 50% reduction in tuberculosis incidence and 75% reduction in mortality from tuberculosis by 2025. We aimed to assess whether these targets are feasible in three high-burden countries with contrasting epidemiology and previous programmatic achievements. METHODS: 11 independently developed mathematical models of tuberculosis transmission projected the epidemiological impact of currently available tuberculosis interventions for prevention, diagnosis, and treatment in China, India, and South Africa. Models were calibrated with data on tuberculosis incidence and mortality in 2012. Representatives from national tuberculosis programmes and the advocacy community provided distinct country-specific intervention scenarios, which included screening for symptoms, active case finding, and preventive therapy. FINDINGS: Aggressive scale-up of any single intervention scenario could not achieve the post-2015 End TB Strategy targets in any country. However, the models projected that, in the South Africa national tuberculosis programme scenario, a combination of continuous isoniazid preventive therapy for individuals on antiretroviral therapy, expanded facility-based screening for symptoms of tuberculosis at health centres, and improved tuberculosis care could achieve a 55% reduction in incidence (range 31–62%) and a 72% reduction in mortality (range 64–82%) compared with 2015 levels. For India, and particularly for China, full scale-up of all interventions in tuberculosis-programme performance fell short of the 2025 targets, despite preventing a cumulative 3·4 million cases. The advocacy scenarios illustrated the high impact of detecting and treating latent tuberculosis. INTERPRETATION: Major reductions in tuberculosis burden seem possible with current interventions. However, additional interventions, adapted to country-specific tuberculosis epidemiology and health systems, are needed to reach the post-2015 End TB Strategy targets at country level. FUNDING: Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation Elsevier Ltd 2016-10-06 /pmc/articles/PMC6375908/ /pubmed/27720688 http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/S2214-109X(16)30199-1 Text en © 2016 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY license http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ This is an open access article under the CC BY license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/).
spellingShingle Article
Houben, Rein M G J
Menzies, Nicolas A
Sumner, Tom
Huynh, Grace H
Arinaminpathy, Nimalan
Goldhaber-Fiebert, Jeremy D
Lin, Hsien-Ho
Wu, Chieh-Yin
Mandal, Sandip
Pandey, Surabhi
Suen, Sze-chuan
Bendavid, Eran
Azman, Andrew S
Dowdy, David W
Bacaër, Nicolas
Rhines, Allison S
Feldman, Marcus W
Handel, Andreas
Whalen, Christopher C
Chang, Stewart T
Wagner, Bradley G
Eckhoff, Philip A
Trauer, James M
Denholm, Justin T
McBryde, Emma S
Cohen, Ted
Salomon, Joshua A
Pretorius, Carel
Lalli, Marek
Eaton, Jeffrey W
Boccia, Delia
Hosseini, Mehran
Gomez, Gabriela B
Sahu, Suvanand
Daniels, Colleen
Ditiu, Lucica
Chin, Daniel P
Wang, Lixia
Chadha, Vineet K
Rade, Kiran
Dewan, Puneet
Hippner, Piotr
Charalambous, Salome
Grant, Alison D
Churchyard, Gavin
Pillay, Yogan
Mametja, L David
Kimerling, Michael E
Vassall, Anna
White, Richard G
Feasibility of achieving the 2025 WHO global tuberculosis targets in South Africa, China, and India: a combined analysis of 11 mathematical models
title Feasibility of achieving the 2025 WHO global tuberculosis targets in South Africa, China, and India: a combined analysis of 11 mathematical models
title_full Feasibility of achieving the 2025 WHO global tuberculosis targets in South Africa, China, and India: a combined analysis of 11 mathematical models
title_fullStr Feasibility of achieving the 2025 WHO global tuberculosis targets in South Africa, China, and India: a combined analysis of 11 mathematical models
title_full_unstemmed Feasibility of achieving the 2025 WHO global tuberculosis targets in South Africa, China, and India: a combined analysis of 11 mathematical models
title_short Feasibility of achieving the 2025 WHO global tuberculosis targets in South Africa, China, and India: a combined analysis of 11 mathematical models
title_sort feasibility of achieving the 2025 who global tuberculosis targets in south africa, china, and india: a combined analysis of 11 mathematical models
topic Article
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6375908/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/27720688
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/S2214-109X(16)30199-1
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