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Nation-scale primary prevention to reduce newly incident adolescent drug use: the issue of lag time

BACKGROUND: There is limited evidence about the effects of United States (US) nation-level policy changes on the incidence of alcohol drinking and tobacco smoking. To investigate the potential primary prevention effects on precocious drug use and to clarify lag-time issues, we estimated incidence ra...

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Autores principales: Cheng, Hui G., Augustin, Dukernse, Glass, Eric H., Anthony, James C.
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: PeerJ Inc. 2019
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6376940/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/30775172
http://dx.doi.org/10.7717/peerj.6356
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author Cheng, Hui G.
Augustin, Dukernse
Glass, Eric H.
Anthony, James C.
author_facet Cheng, Hui G.
Augustin, Dukernse
Glass, Eric H.
Anthony, James C.
author_sort Cheng, Hui G.
collection PubMed
description BACKGROUND: There is limited evidence about the effects of United States (US) nation-level policy changes on the incidence of alcohol drinking and tobacco smoking. To investigate the potential primary prevention effects on precocious drug use and to clarify lag-time issues, we estimated incidence rates for specified intervals anticipating and lagging after drug policy enactment. Our hypotheses are (a) reductions in underage drinking or smoking onset and (b) increases of incidence at the legal age (i.e., 21 for drinking and 18 for smoking). METHODS: The study population is 12–23-year-old non-institutionalized US civilian residents. Estimates are from 30 community samples drawn to be nationally representative for the US National Surveys on Drug Use and Health 1979–2015. Estimates were year-by-year annual incidence rates for alcohol drinking and tobacco smoking by 12–23-year-olds, age by age. Meta-regressions estimate age-specific incidence over time. RESULTS: Incidence of underage alcohol drinking declined and followed a trend line that started before 1984 enactment of the National Minimum Drinking Age Act, but increased drinking incidence for 21 year olds was observed approximately 10 years after policy enactment. Eight years after the Synar amendment enactment, evidence of reduced smoking incidence started to emerge. Among 18 year olds, a slight increase in tobacco smoking incidence occurred about 10 years after the Synar amendment. CONCLUSION: Once nation-level policies affecting drug sales to minors are enacted, one might have to wait almost a decade before seeing tangible policy effects on drug use incidence rates.
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spelling pubmed-63769402019-02-15 Nation-scale primary prevention to reduce newly incident adolescent drug use: the issue of lag time Cheng, Hui G. Augustin, Dukernse Glass, Eric H. Anthony, James C. PeerJ Epidemiology BACKGROUND: There is limited evidence about the effects of United States (US) nation-level policy changes on the incidence of alcohol drinking and tobacco smoking. To investigate the potential primary prevention effects on precocious drug use and to clarify lag-time issues, we estimated incidence rates for specified intervals anticipating and lagging after drug policy enactment. Our hypotheses are (a) reductions in underage drinking or smoking onset and (b) increases of incidence at the legal age (i.e., 21 for drinking and 18 for smoking). METHODS: The study population is 12–23-year-old non-institutionalized US civilian residents. Estimates are from 30 community samples drawn to be nationally representative for the US National Surveys on Drug Use and Health 1979–2015. Estimates were year-by-year annual incidence rates for alcohol drinking and tobacco smoking by 12–23-year-olds, age by age. Meta-regressions estimate age-specific incidence over time. RESULTS: Incidence of underage alcohol drinking declined and followed a trend line that started before 1984 enactment of the National Minimum Drinking Age Act, but increased drinking incidence for 21 year olds was observed approximately 10 years after policy enactment. Eight years after the Synar amendment enactment, evidence of reduced smoking incidence started to emerge. Among 18 year olds, a slight increase in tobacco smoking incidence occurred about 10 years after the Synar amendment. CONCLUSION: Once nation-level policies affecting drug sales to minors are enacted, one might have to wait almost a decade before seeing tangible policy effects on drug use incidence rates. PeerJ Inc. 2019-02-12 /pmc/articles/PMC6376940/ /pubmed/30775172 http://dx.doi.org/10.7717/peerj.6356 Text en © 2019 Cheng et al. http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/) , which permits unrestricted use, distribution, reproduction and adaptation in any medium and for any purpose provided that it is properly attributed. For attribution, the original author(s), title, publication source (PeerJ) and either DOI or URL of the article must be cited.
spellingShingle Epidemiology
Cheng, Hui G.
Augustin, Dukernse
Glass, Eric H.
Anthony, James C.
Nation-scale primary prevention to reduce newly incident adolescent drug use: the issue of lag time
title Nation-scale primary prevention to reduce newly incident adolescent drug use: the issue of lag time
title_full Nation-scale primary prevention to reduce newly incident adolescent drug use: the issue of lag time
title_fullStr Nation-scale primary prevention to reduce newly incident adolescent drug use: the issue of lag time
title_full_unstemmed Nation-scale primary prevention to reduce newly incident adolescent drug use: the issue of lag time
title_short Nation-scale primary prevention to reduce newly incident adolescent drug use: the issue of lag time
title_sort nation-scale primary prevention to reduce newly incident adolescent drug use: the issue of lag time
topic Epidemiology
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6376940/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/30775172
http://dx.doi.org/10.7717/peerj.6356
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