A population pharmacokinetic model to predict the individual starting dose of tacrolimus in adult renal transplant recipients

AIMS: The aims of this study were to describe the pharmacokinetics of tacrolimus immediately after kidney transplantation, and to develop a clinical tool for selecting the best starting dose for each patient. METHODS: Data on tacrolimus exposure were collected for the first 3 months following renal transplantation. A population pharmacokinetic analysis was conducted using nonlinear mixed‐effects modelling. Demographic, clinical and genetic parameters were evaluated as covariates. RESULTS: A total of 4527 tacrolimus blood samples collected from 337 kidney transplant recipients were available. Data were best described using a two‐compartment model. The mean absorption rate was 3.6 h(−1), clearance was 23.0 l h(–1) (39% interindividual variability, IIV), central volume of distribution was 692 l (49% IIV) and the peripheral volume of distribution 5340 l (53% IIV). Interoccasion variability was added to clearance (14%). Higher body surface area (BSA), lower serum creatinine, younger age, higher albumin and lower haematocrit levels were identified as covariates enhancing tacrolimus clearance. Cytochrome P450 (CYP) 3A5 expressers had a significantly higher tacrolimus clearance (160%), whereas CYP3A4*22 carriers had a significantly lower clearance (80%). From these significant covariates, age, BSA, CYP3A4 and CYP3A5 genotype were incorporated in a second model to individualize the tacrolimus starting dose: [Formula: see text] Both models were successfully internally and externally validated. A clinical trial was simulated to demonstrate the added value of the starting dose model. CONCLUSIONS: For a good prediction of tacrolimus pharmacokinetics, age, BSA, CYP3A4 and CYP3A5 genotype are important covariates. These covariates explained 30% of the variability in CL/F. The model proved effective in calculating the optimal tacrolimus dose based on these parameters and can be used to individualize the tacrolimus dose in the early period after transplantation.