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Boundedly rational expected utility theory

We build a satisficing model of choice under risk which embeds Expected Utility Theory (EUT) into a boundedly rational deliberation process. The decision maker accumulates evidence for and against alternative options by repeatedly sampling from her underlying set of EU preferences until the evidence...

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Detalles Bibliográficos
Autores principales: Navarro-Martinez, Daniel, Loomes, Graham, Isoni, Andrea, Butler, David, Alaoui, Larbi
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: Springer US 2018
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6383980/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/30872896
http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s11166-018-9293-3
Descripción
Sumario:We build a satisficing model of choice under risk which embeds Expected Utility Theory (EUT) into a boundedly rational deliberation process. The decision maker accumulates evidence for and against alternative options by repeatedly sampling from her underlying set of EU preferences until the evidence favouring one option satisfies her desired level of confidence. Despite its EUT core, the model produces patterns of behaviour that violate standard EUT axioms, while at the same time capturing systematic relationships between choice probabilities, response times and confidence judgments, which are beyond the scope of theories that do not take deliberation into account. ELECTRONIC SUPPLEMENTARY MATERIAL: The online version of this article (10.1007/s11166-018-9293-3) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.